---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
      name:  <unnamed>
       log:  ChibaJohnsonLeedsJOPrep/output_logfile_main.log
  log type:  text
 opened on:  22 Apr 2015, 11:49:56

. 
. //+=====+=====+=====+=====+=====+=====+=====+=====+=====+
. //  Load data and define the 2-part model
. //+=====+=====+=====+=====+=====+=====+=====+=====+=====+
. 
.     // Load the data 
. 
.     use "CJL_data_zero10.dta", clear

. 
. 
.     // Define the likelihood function for the logit two-part model
. 
.     cap program drop tpm

.     program define tpm, eclass
  1.         version 12
  2.         args lnf out sel 
  3.         tempvar pg pb
  4.         qui{
  5.         gen double `pg' = 1/(1 + exp(-`sel'))
  6.         gen double `pb' = 1/(1 + exp(-`out'))
  7.         replace `lnf' = ln(1-`pg')            if $ML_y1 == 0
  8.         replace `lnf' = ln(`pg') + ln(1-`pb') if $ML_y1 == 1
  9.         replace `lnf' = ln(`pg') + ln(`pb')   if $ML_y1 == 2
 10.         }
 11.     end    

. 
. //+=====+=====+=====+=====+=====+=====+=====+=====+=====+
. //  Testing Hypothesis 1 (Table 1)
. //+=====+=====+=====+=====+=====+=====+=====+=====+=====+
. 
. // Logit 1
. 
.     logit onlyconsul dem_prop

Iteration 0:   log likelihood = -335.60891  
Iteration 1:   log likelihood = -309.25609  
Iteration 2:   log likelihood = -308.99442  
Iteration 3:   log likelihood = -308.99437  
Iteration 4:   log likelihood = -308.99437  

Logistic regression                               Number of obs   =        536
                                                  LR chi2(1)      =      53.23
                                                  Prob > chi2     =     0.0000
Log likelihood = -308.99437                       Pseudo R2       =     0.0793

------------------------------------------------------------------------------
  onlyconsul |      Coef.   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
    dem_prop |   1.803417   .2550418     7.07   0.000     1.303544    2.303289
       _cons |  -1.406942   .1395256   -10.08   0.000    -1.680407   -1.133477
------------------------------------------------------------------------------

.     estimates store logit1

. 
. // Logit 2: with control variables
. 
.     logit onlyconsul dem_prop min_s_2cat mem_num max_threat wartime

Iteration 0:   log likelihood = -335.60891  
Iteration 1:   log likelihood = -300.57933  
Iteration 2:   log likelihood = -299.26277  
Iteration 3:   log likelihood = -299.25245  
Iteration 4:   log likelihood = -299.25244  

Logistic regression                               Number of obs   =        536
                                                  LR chi2(5)      =      72.71
                                                  Prob > chi2     =     0.0000
Log likelihood = -299.25244                       Pseudo R2       =     0.1083

------------------------------------------------------------------------------
  onlyconsul |      Coef.   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
    dem_prop |   1.586172   .2636971     6.02   0.000     1.069335    2.103009
  min_s_2cat |  -1.453196   .5720853    -2.54   0.011    -2.574463   -.3319293
     mem_num |  -.1362285   .0725169    -1.88   0.060    -.2783589    .0059019
  max_threat |  -1.405994   .7341784    -1.92   0.055    -2.844957    .0329693
     wartime |  -1.121284   .3742837    -3.00   0.003    -1.854866    -.387701
       _cons |   .5918978   .6247671     0.95   0.343    -.6326232    1.816419
------------------------------------------------------------------------------

.     estimates store logit2

. 
. // 2PM (using suest)
. 
.     // Generate the "selection" variable (any alliance)
.     gen anyalliance = h1_cat3 > 0

. 
.     // Analyze the "selection" stage
.     logit anyalliance dem_prop min_s_2cat mem_num max_threat wartime

Iteration 0:   log likelihood = -1796.1344  
Iteration 1:   log likelihood = -1757.8982  
Iteration 2:   log likelihood = -1756.8155  
Iteration 3:   log likelihood = -1756.8145  
Iteration 4:   log likelihood = -1756.8145  

Logistic regression                               Number of obs   =       5896
                                                  LR chi2(5)      =      78.64
                                                  Prob > chi2     =     0.0000
Log likelihood = -1756.8145                       Pseudo R2       =     0.0219

------------------------------------------------------------------------------
 anyalliance |      Coef.   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
    dem_prop |   .0974586   .1370792     0.71   0.477    -.1712118    .3661289
  min_s_2cat |   .2770201   .3021351     0.92   0.359    -.3151537    .8691939
     mem_num |   .0428805   .0220057     1.95   0.051    -.0002499     .086011
  max_threat |  -2.202355   .3257309    -6.76   0.000    -2.840776   -1.563934
     wartime |  -.0365584   .1394249    -0.26   0.793    -.3098261    .2367093
       _cons |    -2.0737   .3231259    -6.42   0.000    -2.707015   -1.440385
------------------------------------------------------------------------------

.     estimates store logit_aa

. 
.     // Combine the "selection" and "outcome" stages using suest
.     suest logit2 logit_aa

Simultaneous results for logit2, logit_aa

                                                  Number of obs   =       5896

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                     |               Robust
                     |      Coef.   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
---------------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
logit2_onlyconsul    |
            dem_prop |   1.586172   .2665155     5.95   0.000     1.063811    2.108533
          min_s_2cat |  -1.453196   .6015005    -2.42   0.016    -2.632115   -.2742766
             mem_num |  -.1362285   .0678092    -2.01   0.045    -.2691321   -.0033249
          max_threat |  -1.405994   .6458915    -2.18   0.029    -2.671918   -.1400699
             wartime |  -1.121284   .4012013    -2.79   0.005    -1.907624   -.3349434
               _cons |   .5918978   .6243516     0.95   0.343    -.6318088    1.815604
---------------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
logit_aa_anyalliance |
            dem_prop |   .0974586   .1480009     0.66   0.510    -.1926178     .387535
          min_s_2cat |   .2770201   .3680115     0.75   0.452    -.4442691    .9983093
             mem_num |   .0428805   .0226236     1.90   0.058    -.0014609     .087222
          max_threat |  -2.202355   .3655699    -6.02   0.000    -2.918859   -1.485851
             wartime |  -.0365584   .1406587    -0.26   0.795    -.3122443    .2391276
               _cons |    -2.0737   .3924612    -5.28   0.000     -2.84291    -1.30449
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

.     estimates store tpm1_suest

. 
. // 2PM (using the defined LL function)
. 
. ml model lf tpm ///
>     (out:h1_cat3 = dem_prop min_s_2cat mem_num max_threat wartime) ///
>     (sel:          dem_prop min_s_2cat mem_num max_threat wartime), ///
>     tech(bfgs) robust

. ml maximize, nolog

                                                  Number of obs   =       5896
                                                  Wald chi2(5)    =      67.90
Log pseudolikelihood = -2056.0669                 Prob > chi2     =     0.0000

------------------------------------------------------------------------------
             |               Robust
     h1_cat3 |      Coef.   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
out          |
    dem_prop |   1.585977   .2664984     5.95   0.000     1.063649    2.108304
  min_s_2cat |  -1.453251   .6014528    -2.42   0.016    -2.632077   -.2744249
     mem_num |  -.1361586   .0677696    -2.01   0.045    -.2689845   -.0033326
  max_threat |  -1.406394   .6458391    -2.18   0.029    -2.672215   -.1405726
     wartime |  -1.121018   .4011032    -2.79   0.005    -1.907166   -.3348702
       _cons |   .5920755   .6242903     0.95   0.343    -.6315111    1.815662
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
sel          |
    dem_prop |   .0974314   .1480042     0.66   0.510    -.1926515    .3875143
  min_s_2cat |   .2770041   .3680078     0.75   0.452     -.444278    .9982861
     mem_num |   .0428962   .0226207     1.90   0.058    -.0014395    .0872319
  max_threat |  -2.202178   .3655694    -6.02   0.000    -2.918681   -1.485675
     wartime |  -.0366008   .1406629    -0.26   0.795     -.312295    .2390934
       _cons |  -2.073775   .3924576    -5.28   0.000    -2.842977   -1.304572
------------------------------------------------------------------------------

. estimates store tpm1

. 
. // Compare 2PM estimates from suest and the defined LL function
. esttab tpm1_suest tpm1, aic se star(* 0.10 ** 0.05 *** 0.01) b(%9.2f)

--------------------------------------------
                      (1)             (2)   
                                  h1_cat3   
--------------------------------------------
main                                        
dem_prop             1.59***         1.59***
                   (0.27)          (0.27)   

min_s_2cat          -1.45**         -1.45** 
                   (0.60)          (0.60)   

mem_num             -0.14**         -0.14** 
                   (0.07)          (0.07)   

max_threat          -1.41**         -1.41** 
                   (0.65)          (0.65)   

wartime             -1.12***        -1.12***
                   (0.40)          (0.40)   

_cons                0.59            0.59   
                   (0.62)          (0.62)   
--------------------------------------------
logit_aa_a~e                                
dem_prop             0.10                   
                   (0.15)                   

min_s_2cat           0.28                   
                   (0.37)                   

mem_num              0.04*                  
                   (0.02)                   

max_threat          -2.20***                
                   (0.37)                   

wartime             -0.04                   
                   (0.14)                   

_cons               -2.07***                
                   (0.39)                   
--------------------------------------------
sel                                         
dem_prop                             0.10   
                                   (0.15)   

min_s_2cat                           0.28   
                                   (0.37)   

mem_num                              0.04*  
                                   (0.02)   

max_threat                          -2.20***
                                   (0.37)   

wartime                             -0.04   
                                   (0.14)   

_cons                               -2.07***
                                   (0.39)   
--------------------------------------------
N                    5896            5896   
AIC                     .         4136.13   
--------------------------------------------
Standard errors in parentheses
* p<0.10, ** p<0.05, *** p<0.01

. 
. 
.     /////////////////////////
>     //     Table 1
.     /////////////////////////
> 
.     esttab logit1 logit2 tpm1, aic se star(* 0.10 ** 0.05 *** 0.01) b(%9.2f) label

--------------------------------------------------------------------
                              (1)             (2)             (3)   
                     Consultati~y    Consultati~y    DV for 2P~1)   
--------------------------------------------------------------------
main                                                                
Proportion of Demo~s         1.80***         1.59***         1.59***
                           (0.26)          (0.26)          (0.27)   

Similarity of Inte~s                        -1.45**         -1.45** 
                                           (0.57)          (0.60)   

Number of Members                           -0.14*          -0.14** 
                                           (0.07)          (0.07)   

Threat Level                                -1.41*          -1.41** 
                                           (0.73)          (0.65)   

War Time                                    -1.12***        -1.12***
                                           (0.37)          (0.40)   

Constant                    -1.41***         0.59            0.59   
                           (0.14)          (0.62)          (0.62)   
--------------------------------------------------------------------
sel                                                                 
Proportion of Demo~s                                         0.10   
                                                           (0.15)   

Similarity of Inte~s                                         0.28   
                                                           (0.37)   

Number of Members                                            0.04*  
                                                           (0.02)   

Threat Level                                                -2.20***
                                                           (0.37)   

War Time                                                    -0.04   
                                                           (0.14)   

Constant                                                    -2.07***
                                                           (0.39)   
--------------------------------------------------------------------
Observations                  536             536            5896   
AIC                        621.99          610.50         4136.13   
--------------------------------------------------------------------
Standard errors in parentheses
* p<0.10, ** p<0.05, *** p<0.01

. 
. 
. 
. //+=====+=====+=====+=====+=====+=====+=====+=====+=====+
. //  Testing Hypothesis 2 (Table 2)
. //+=====+=====+=====+=====+=====+=====+=====+=====+=====+
. 
. // Logit 3
. 
.     logit defcon dem_prop if defense==1

Iteration 0:   log likelihood = -178.91609  
Iteration 1:   log likelihood = -177.29107  
Iteration 2:   log likelihood = -177.29103  
Iteration 3:   log likelihood = -177.29103  

Logistic regression                               Number of obs   =        260
                                                  LR chi2(1)      =       3.25
                                                  Prob > chi2     =     0.0714
Log likelihood = -177.29103                       Pseudo R2       =     0.0091

------------------------------------------------------------------------------
      defcon |      Coef.   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
    dem_prop |   .7211628   .4026544     1.79   0.073    -.0680254    1.510351
       _cons |  -.3394571   .1474082    -2.30   0.021    -.6283719   -.0505423
------------------------------------------------------------------------------

.     estimates store logit3

. 
. // Logit 4: with control variables
. 
.     logit defcon dem_prop min_s_2cat mem_num offense consul if defense==1

Iteration 0:   log likelihood = -178.91609  
Iteration 1:   log likelihood = -157.52057  
Iteration 2:   log likelihood = -157.46562  
Iteration 3:   log likelihood = -157.46558  
Iteration 4:   log likelihood = -157.46558  

Logistic regression                               Number of obs   =        260
                                                  LR chi2(5)      =      42.90
                                                  Prob > chi2     =     0.0000
Log likelihood = -157.46558                       Pseudo R2       =     0.1199

------------------------------------------------------------------------------
      defcon |      Coef.   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
    dem_prop |   1.001655   .4750243     2.11   0.035     .0706242    1.932685
  min_s_2cat |  -1.151491   .6673066    -1.73   0.084    -2.459388    .1564056
     mem_num |     .10651   .0531378     2.00   0.045     .0023618    .2106581
     offense |   1.535501   .3261364     4.71   0.000     .8962856    2.174717
      consul |  -.8540376   .2858969    -2.99   0.003    -1.414385     -.29369
       _cons |   .2445416   .6447922     0.38   0.704    -1.019228    1.508311
------------------------------------------------------------------------------

.     estimates store logit4

. 
. // 2PM (using suest)
. 
.     // Generate the "selection" variable (any alliance)
.     gen defense_sel = h2_cat3 > 0

. 
.     // Analyze the "selection" stage
.     logit defense_sel dem_prop min_s_2cat mem_num

Iteration 0:   log likelihood = -1065.7316  
Iteration 1:   log likelihood = -1037.0794  
Iteration 2:   log likelihood = -1034.1431  
Iteration 3:   log likelihood = -1034.1378  
Iteration 4:   log likelihood = -1034.1378  

Logistic regression                               Number of obs   =       5896
                                                  LR chi2(3)      =      63.19
                                                  Prob > chi2     =     0.0000
Log likelihood = -1034.1378                       Pseudo R2       =     0.0296

------------------------------------------------------------------------------
 defense_sel |      Coef.   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
    dem_prop |  -1.221639   .2302247    -5.31   0.000    -1.672871    -.770407
  min_s_2cat |   1.538674   .3789892     4.06   0.000     .7958687    2.281479
     mem_num |   .1091885   .0232972     4.69   0.000     .0635268    .1548503
       _cons |  -4.280108   .3545822   -12.07   0.000    -4.975076   -3.585139
------------------------------------------------------------------------------

.     estimates store logit_def

. 
.     // Combine the "selection" and "outcome" stages using suest
.     suest logit4 logit_def

Simultaneous results for logit4, logit_def

                                                  Number of obs   =       5896

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                      |               Robust
                      |      Coef.   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
----------------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
logit4_defcon         |
             dem_prop |   1.001655   .4726565     2.12   0.034      .075265    1.928044
           min_s_2cat |  -1.151491   .7284576    -1.58   0.114    -2.579242    .2762594
              mem_num |     .10651   .0578005     1.84   0.065     -.006777    .2197969
              offense |   1.535501   .3137061     4.89   0.000     .9206486    2.150354
               consul |  -.8540376   .2813453    -3.04   0.002    -1.405464   -.3026109
                _cons |   .2445416   .6783976     0.36   0.718    -1.085093    1.574176
----------------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
logit_def_defense_sel |
             dem_prop |  -1.221639     .25174    -4.85   0.000     -1.71504   -.7282378
           min_s_2cat |   1.538674   .5025257     3.06   0.002     .5537416    2.523606
              mem_num |   .1091885   .0250544     4.36   0.000     .0600827    .1582943
                _cons |  -4.280108   .4571892    -9.36   0.000    -5.176182   -3.384033
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

.     estimates store tpm2_suest

. 
. // 2PM (using the defined LL function)
. 
. ml model lf tpm ///
>     (out: h2_cat3 = dem_prop min_s_2cat mem_num offense_tpm consul_tpm) ///
>     (sel:           dem_prop min_s_2cat mem_num), ///
>     tech(bfgs) robust

. ml maximize, nolog

                                                  Number of obs   =       5896
                                                  Wald chi2(5)    =      38.27
Log pseudolikelihood = -1191.6034                 Prob > chi2     =     0.0000

------------------------------------------------------------------------------
             |               Robust
     h2_cat3 |      Coef.   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
out          |
    dem_prop |   1.001577   .4726535     2.12   0.034     .0751934    1.927961
  min_s_2cat |  -1.151421   .7284436    -1.58   0.114    -2.579144    .2763024
     mem_num |   .1065099   .0577998     1.84   0.065    -.0067756    .2197954
 offense_tpm |   1.535443   .3137009     4.89   0.000     .9206002    2.150285
  consul_tpm |  -.8540105   .2813413    -3.04   0.002    -1.405429   -.3025916
       _cons |   .2444907   .6783858     0.36   0.719    -1.085121    1.574102
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
sel          |
    dem_prop |  -1.221531   .2517296    -4.85   0.000    -1.714912   -.7281497
  min_s_2cat |    1.53864    .502514     3.06   0.002     .5537304    2.523549
     mem_num |   .1091925   .0250533     4.36   0.000     .0600889    .1582961
       _cons |  -4.280106   .4571778    -9.36   0.000    -5.176158   -3.384054
------------------------------------------------------------------------------

. estimates store tpm2

. 
. 
. // Compare 2PM estimates from suest and the defined LL function
. esttab tpm2_suest tpm2, aic se star(* 0.10 ** 0.05 *** 0.01) b(%9.2f)

--------------------------------------------
                      (1)             (2)   
                                  h2_cat3   
--------------------------------------------
main                                        
dem_prop             1.00**          1.00** 
                   (0.47)          (0.47)   

min_s_2cat          -1.15           -1.15   
                   (0.73)          (0.73)   

mem_num              0.11*           0.11*  
                   (0.06)          (0.06)   

offense              1.54***                
                   (0.31)                   

consul              -0.85***                
                   (0.28)                   

offense_tpm                          1.54***
                                   (0.31)   

consul_tpm                          -0.85***
                                   (0.28)   

_cons                0.24            0.24   
                   (0.68)          (0.68)   
--------------------------------------------
logit_def_~l                                
dem_prop            -1.22***                
                   (0.25)                   

min_s_2cat           1.54***                
                   (0.50)                   

mem_num              0.11***                
                   (0.03)                   

_cons               -4.28***                
                   (0.46)                   
--------------------------------------------
sel                                         
dem_prop                            -1.22***
                                   (0.25)   

min_s_2cat                           1.54***
                                   (0.50)   

mem_num                              0.11***
                                   (0.03)   

_cons                               -4.28***
                                   (0.46)   
--------------------------------------------
N                    5896            5896   
AIC                     .         2403.21   
--------------------------------------------
Standard errors in parentheses
* p<0.10, ** p<0.05, *** p<0.01

. 
. 
.     /////////////////////////
>     //     Table 2
.     /////////////////////////
> 
.     esttab logit3 logit4 tpm2, aic se star(* 0.10 ** 0.05 *** 0.01) b(%9.2f) label

--------------------------------------------------------------------
                              (1)             (2)             (3)   
                     Defense Co~y    Defense Co~y    DV for 2P~2)   
--------------------------------------------------------------------
main                                                                
Proportion of Demo~s         0.72*           1.00**          1.00** 
                           (0.40)          (0.48)          (0.47)   

Similarity of Inte~s                        -1.15*          -1.15   
                                           (0.67)          (0.73)   

Number of Members                            0.11**          0.11*  
                                           (0.05)          (0.06)   

Offense Obligation                           1.54***                
                                           (0.33)                   

Consultation Oblig~n                        -0.85***                
                                           (0.29)                   

Offense Obligation                                           1.54***
                                                           (0.31)   

Consultation Oblig~n                                        -0.85***
                                                           (0.28)   

Constant                    -0.34**          0.24            0.24   
                           (0.15)          (0.64)          (0.68)   
--------------------------------------------------------------------
sel                                                                 
Proportion of Demo~s                                        -1.22***
                                                           (0.25)   

Similarity of Inte~s                                         1.54***
                                                           (0.50)   

Number of Members                                            0.11***
                                                           (0.03)   

Constant                                                    -4.28***
                                                           (0.46)   
--------------------------------------------------------------------
Observations                  260             260            5896   
AIC                        358.58          326.93         2403.21   
--------------------------------------------------------------------
Standard errors in parentheses
* p<0.10, ** p<0.05, *** p<0.01

. 
. 
. 
. //+=====+=====+=====+=====+=====+=====+=====+=====+=====+
. // Export the estimates
. //+=====+=====+=====+=====+=====+=====+=====+=====+=====+
. 
. // 2PM results for Hypothesis 1
. 
. estimates restore tpm1
(results tpm1 are active now)

. 
.     mat beta1_2PM = e(b)

.     mat vcov1_2PM = e(V)

. 
. // Export Beta and V-COV matrix
. 
. preserve

.         svmat beta1_2PM, names(eqcol)

.         outsheet out* sel* in 1 using "output_2PM1beta.txt", replace nolabel
(note: file output_2PM1beta.txt not found)

. restore

. 
. preserve

.         svmat vcov1_2PM, names(eqcol)

.         outsheet out* sel* in 1/12 using "output_2PM1vcov.txt", replace nolabel
(note: file output_2PM1vcov.txt not found)

. restore

. 
. 
. // 2PM results for Hypothesis 2
. 
. estimates restore tpm2
(results tpm2 are active now)

. 
.     mat beta2_2PM = e(b)

.     mat vcov2_2PM = e(V)

. 
. // Export Beta and V-COV matrix
. 
. preserve

.         svmat beta2_2PM, names(eqcol)

.         outsheet out* sel* in 1 using "output_2PM2beta.txt", replace nolabel
(note: file output_2PM2beta.txt not found)

. restore

. 
. preserve

.         svmat vcov2_2PM, names(eqcol)

.         outsheet out* sel* in 1/10 using "output_2PM2vcov.txt", replace nolabel
(note: file output_2PM2vcov.txt not found)

. restore

. 
. 
. //+=====+=====+=====+=====+=====+=====+=====+=====+=====+
. //  Robustness Checks
. //+=====+=====+=====+=====+=====+=====+=====+=====+=====+
. 
. //==========================================
. // Probabilistic deterrence
. //==========================================
. 
.     logit prob_det dem_prop if defense==1

Iteration 0:   log likelihood = -119.79024  
Iteration 1:   log likelihood = -112.81321  
Iteration 2:   log likelihood = -112.14658  
Iteration 3:   log likelihood = -112.14639  
Iteration 4:   log likelihood = -112.14639  

Logistic regression                               Number of obs   =        260
                                                  LR chi2(1)      =      15.29
                                                  Prob > chi2     =     0.0001
Log likelihood = -112.14639                       Pseudo R2       =     0.0638

------------------------------------------------------------------------------
    prob_det |      Coef.   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
    dem_prop |   1.848326   .4665093     3.96   0.000      .933985    2.762668
       _cons |  -2.024436   .2210223    -9.16   0.000    -2.457631    -1.59124
------------------------------------------------------------------------------

.     estimates store a2_1

. 
.     logit prob_det dem_prop min_s_2cat mem_num max_threat wartime if defense==1

Iteration 0:   log likelihood = -119.79024  
Iteration 1:   log likelihood = -103.34065  
Iteration 2:   log likelihood = -101.44594  
Iteration 3:   log likelihood = -101.43505  
Iteration 4:   log likelihood = -101.43505  

Logistic regression                               Number of obs   =        260
                                                  LR chi2(5)      =      36.71
                                                  Prob > chi2     =     0.0000
Log likelihood = -101.43505                       Pseudo R2       =     0.1532

------------------------------------------------------------------------------
    prob_det |      Coef.   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
    dem_prop |   1.227122   .5453869     2.25   0.024     .1581833    2.296061
  min_s_2cat |  -2.814352   .7739104    -3.64   0.000    -4.331188   -1.297515
     mem_num |   .1048121   .0501824     2.09   0.037     .0064564    .2031678
  max_threat |   .1042032   1.117364     0.09   0.926     -2.08579    2.294197
     wartime |  -.7778381   .5383757    -1.44   0.149    -1.833035    .2773589
       _cons |   .0155039   .8402257     0.02   0.985    -1.631308    1.662316
------------------------------------------------------------------------------

.     estimates store a2_2

. 
. 
.     /////////////////////////
>     //     Table A.2
.     /////////////////////////
> 
.     esttab a2_1 a2_2, aic se star(* 0.10 ** 0.05 *** 0.01) b(%9.3f) label

----------------------------------------------------
                              (1)             (2)   
                     Probabilis~B    Probabilis~B   
----------------------------------------------------
Probabilistic Dete~B                                
Proportion of Demo~s        1.848***        1.227** 
                          (0.467)         (0.545)   

Similarity of Inte~s                       -2.814***
                                          (0.774)   

Number of Members                           0.105** 
                                          (0.050)   

Threat Level                                0.104   
                                          (1.117)   

War Time                                   -0.778   
                                          (0.538)   

Constant                   -2.024***        0.016   
                          (0.221)         (0.840)   
----------------------------------------------------
Observations                  260             260   
AIC                       228.293         214.870   
----------------------------------------------------
Standard errors in parentheses
* p<0.10, ** p<0.05, *** p<0.01

. 
. 
. 
. //==========================================
. // Models with a democracy dummy
. //==========================================
. 
.     // Hypothesis 1
. 
.     logit onlyconsul dem_dich

Iteration 0:   log likelihood = -335.60891  
Iteration 1:   log likelihood = -312.67099  
Iteration 2:   log likelihood = -312.35472  
Iteration 3:   log likelihood =  -312.3545  
Iteration 4:   log likelihood =  -312.3545  

Logistic regression                               Number of obs   =        536
                                                  LR chi2(1)      =      46.51
                                                  Prob > chi2     =     0.0000
Log likelihood =  -312.3545                       Pseudo R2       =     0.0693

------------------------------------------------------------------------------
  onlyconsul |      Coef.   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
    dem_dich |   1.307011   .1986649     6.58   0.000     .9176348    1.696387
       _cons |  -1.475346   .1552165    -9.51   0.000    -1.779565   -1.171127
------------------------------------------------------------------------------

.     estimates store a3_1

. 
.     logit onlyconsul dem_dich min_s_2cat mem_num max_threat wartime

Iteration 0:   log likelihood = -335.60891  
Iteration 1:   log likelihood = -301.54599  
Iteration 2:   log likelihood = -300.37433  
Iteration 3:   log likelihood = -300.36607  
Iteration 4:   log likelihood = -300.36607  

Logistic regression                               Number of obs   =        536
                                                  LR chi2(5)      =      70.49
                                                  Prob > chi2     =     0.0000
Log likelihood = -300.36607                       Pseudo R2       =     0.1050

------------------------------------------------------------------------------
  onlyconsul |      Coef.   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
    dem_dich |   1.220749   .2102502     5.81   0.000      .808666    1.632832
  min_s_2cat |  -1.204664   .5846022    -2.06   0.039    -2.350464   -.0588649
     mem_num |  -.1594732   .0689332    -2.31   0.021    -.2945797   -.0243667
  max_threat |  -1.487061   .7335445    -2.03   0.043    -2.924782   -.0493407
     wartime |  -1.132042   .3702377    -3.06   0.002    -1.857694   -.4063894
       _cons |   .3802251   .6381144     0.60   0.551    -.8704561    1.630906
------------------------------------------------------------------------------

.     estimates store a3_2

. 
.     /////////////////////////
>     //     Table A.3
.     /////////////////////////
> 
.     esttab a3_1 a3_2, aic se star(* 0.10 ** 0.05 *** 0.01) b(%9.3f) label

----------------------------------------------------
                              (1)             (2)   
                     Consultati~y    Consultati~y   
----------------------------------------------------
Consultation Only                                   
Any Democratic Mem~r        1.307***        1.221***
                          (0.199)         (0.210)   

Similarity of Inte~s                       -1.205** 
                                          (0.585)   

Number of Members                          -0.159** 
                                          (0.069)   

Threat Level                               -1.487** 
                                          (0.734)   

War Time                                   -1.132***
                                          (0.370)   

Constant                   -1.475***        0.380   
                          (0.155)         (0.638)   
----------------------------------------------------
Observations                  536             536   
AIC                       628.709         612.732   
----------------------------------------------------
Standard errors in parentheses
* p<0.10, ** p<0.05, *** p<0.01

. 
. 
. 
.     // Hypothesis 2
. 
.     logit defcon dem_dich if defense==1

Iteration 0:   log likelihood = -178.91609  
Iteration 1:   log likelihood = -177.31098  
Iteration 2:   log likelihood = -177.31087  
Iteration 3:   log likelihood = -177.31087  

Logistic regression                               Number of obs   =        260
                                                  LR chi2(1)      =       3.21
                                                  Prob > chi2     =     0.0732
Log likelihood = -177.31087                       Pseudo R2       =     0.0090

------------------------------------------------------------------------------
      defcon |      Coef.   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
    dem_dich |   .4758459     .26612     1.79   0.074    -.0457397    .9974315
       _cons |  -.3580629   .1536152    -2.33   0.020    -.6591431   -.0569826
------------------------------------------------------------------------------

.     estimates store a4_1

. 
.     logit defcon dem_dich min_s_2cat mem_num offense consul if defense==1

Iteration 0:   log likelihood = -178.91609  
Iteration 1:   log likelihood =  -158.8904  
Iteration 2:   log likelihood = -158.84833  
Iteration 3:   log likelihood = -158.84831  
Iteration 4:   log likelihood = -158.84831  

Logistic regression                               Number of obs   =        260
                                                  LR chi2(5)      =      40.14
                                                  Prob > chi2     =     0.0000
Log likelihood = -158.84831                       Pseudo R2       =     0.1122

------------------------------------------------------------------------------
      defcon |      Coef.   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
    dem_dich |   .4318461   .3312642     1.30   0.192    -.2174198    1.081112
  min_s_2cat |  -1.311665   .6857997    -1.91   0.056    -2.655808    .0324776
     mem_num |   .0868901   .0541326     1.61   0.108    -.0192079    .1929881
     offense |   1.484991   .3229148     4.60   0.000     .8520897    2.117893
      consul |  -.7829099   .2801838    -2.79   0.005     -1.33206   -.2337598
       _cons |   .4653417     .65483     0.71   0.477    -.8181015    1.748785
------------------------------------------------------------------------------

.     estimates store a4_2

. 
.     /////////////////////////
>     //     Table A.4
.     /////////////////////////
> 
.     esttab a4_1 a4_2, aic se star(* 0.10 ** 0.05 *** 0.01) b(%9.3f) label

----------------------------------------------------
                              (1)             (2)   
                     Defense Co~y    Defense Co~y   
----------------------------------------------------
Defense Conditiona~y                                
Any Democratic Mem~r        0.476*          0.432   
                          (0.266)         (0.331)   

Similarity of Inte~s                       -1.312*  
                                          (0.686)   

Number of Members                           0.087   
                                          (0.054)   

Offense Obligation                          1.485***
                                          (0.323)   

Consultation Oblig~n                       -0.783***
                                          (0.280)   

Constant                   -0.358**         0.465   
                          (0.154)         (0.655)   
----------------------------------------------------
Observations                  260             260   
AIC                       358.622         329.697   
----------------------------------------------------
Standard errors in parentheses
* p<0.10, ** p<0.05, *** p<0.01

. 
. 
. //==========================================
. // Exclude NATO
. //==========================================
. 
.     // Hypothesis 1
. 
.     logit onlyconsul dem_prop if atopid != 3180

Iteration 0:   log likelihood = -335.22423  
Iteration 1:   log likelihood = -308.43177  
Iteration 2:   log likelihood = -308.16625  
Iteration 3:   log likelihood =  -308.1662  
Iteration 4:   log likelihood =  -308.1662  

Logistic regression                               Number of obs   =        535
                                                  LR chi2(1)      =      54.12
                                                  Prob > chi2     =     0.0000
Log likelihood =  -308.1662                       Pseudo R2       =     0.0807

------------------------------------------------------------------------------
  onlyconsul |      Coef.   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
    dem_prop |   1.822787   .2559024     7.12   0.000     1.321227    2.324346
       _cons |    -1.4091   .1396125   -10.09   0.000    -1.682736   -1.135465
------------------------------------------------------------------------------

.     estimates store a5_1

. 
.     logit onlyconsul dem_prop min_s_2cat mem_num max_threat wartime if atopid != 3180

Iteration 0:   log likelihood = -335.22423  
Iteration 1:   log likelihood = -299.81359  
Iteration 2:   log likelihood = -298.61863  
Iteration 3:   log likelihood = -298.61184  
Iteration 4:   log likelihood = -298.61184  

Logistic regression                               Number of obs   =        535
                                                  LR chi2(5)      =      73.22
                                                  Prob > chi2     =     0.0000
Log likelihood = -298.61184                       Pseudo R2       =     0.1092

------------------------------------------------------------------------------
  onlyconsul |      Coef.   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
    dem_prop |   1.601051    .264221     6.06   0.000     1.083187    2.118914
  min_s_2cat |  -1.494155   .5715374    -2.61   0.009    -2.614348   -.3739627
     mem_num |  -.1143279   .0711794    -1.61   0.108    -.2538371    .0251812
  max_threat |  -1.441822   .7348645    -1.96   0.050     -2.88213   -.0015139
     wartime |  -1.137311   .3749994    -3.03   0.002    -1.872297   -.4023261
       _cons |   .5807966   .6189625     0.94   0.348    -.6323476    1.793941
------------------------------------------------------------------------------

.     estimates store a5_2

. 
.     /////////////////////////
>     //     Table A.5
.     /////////////////////////
> 
.     esttab a5_1 a5_2, aic se star(* 0.10 ** 0.05 *** 0.01) b(%9.3f) label

----------------------------------------------------
                              (1)             (2)   
                     Consultati~y    Consultati~y   
----------------------------------------------------
Consultation Only                                   
Proportion of Demo~s        1.823***        1.601***
                          (0.256)         (0.264)   

Similarity of Inte~s                       -1.494***
                                          (0.572)   

Number of Members                          -0.114   
                                          (0.071)   

Threat Level                               -1.442** 
                                          (0.735)   

War Time                                   -1.137***
                                          (0.375)   

Constant                   -1.409***        0.581   
                          (0.140)         (0.619)   
----------------------------------------------------
Observations                  535             535   
AIC                       620.332         609.224   
----------------------------------------------------
Standard errors in parentheses
* p<0.10, ** p<0.05, *** p<0.01

. 
. 
.     // Hypothesis 2
. 
.     logit defcon dem_prop if defense==1 & atopid != 3180

Iteration 0:   log likelihood = -178.11522  
Iteration 1:   log likelihood = -176.73674  
Iteration 2:   log likelihood =  -176.7367  
Iteration 3:   log likelihood =  -176.7367  

Logistic regression                               Number of obs   =        259
                                                  LR chi2(1)      =       2.76
                                                  Prob > chi2     =     0.0968
Log likelihood =  -176.7367                       Pseudo R2       =     0.0077

------------------------------------------------------------------------------
      defcon |      Coef.   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
    dem_prop |   .6706882   .4060075     1.65   0.099    -.1250719    1.466448
       _cons |  -.3365187   .1474039    -2.28   0.022     -.625425   -.0476124
------------------------------------------------------------------------------

.     estimates store a6_1

. 
.     logit defcon dem_prop min_s_2cat mem_num offense consul if defense==1 & atopid != 3180

Iteration 0:   log likelihood = -178.11522  
Iteration 1:   log likelihood = -157.25732  
Iteration 2:   log likelihood = -157.20802  
Iteration 3:   log likelihood =   -157.208  
Iteration 4:   log likelihood =   -157.208  

Logistic regression                               Number of obs   =        259
                                                  LR chi2(5)      =      41.81
                                                  Prob > chi2     =     0.0000
Log likelihood =   -157.208                       Pseudo R2       =     0.1174

------------------------------------------------------------------------------
      defcon |      Coef.   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
    dem_prop |    .978736   .4762666     2.06   0.040     .0452706    1.912201
  min_s_2cat |  -1.125172   .6664479    -1.69   0.091    -2.431386    .1810419
     mem_num |   .1010701   .0533866     1.89   0.058    -.0035657     .205706
     offense |    1.53202   .3258367     4.70   0.000     .8933921    2.170648
      consul |  -.8524763   .2854752    -2.99   0.003    -1.411997   -.2929552
       _cons |   .2397124   .6431669     0.37   0.709    -1.020872    1.500296
------------------------------------------------------------------------------

.     estimates store a6_2

. 
.     /////////////////////////
>     //     Table A.6
.     /////////////////////////
> 
.     esttab a6_1 a6_2, aic se star(* 0.10 ** 0.05 *** 0.01) b(%9.3f) label

----------------------------------------------------
                              (1)             (2)   
                     Defense Co~y    Defense Co~y   
----------------------------------------------------
Defense Conditiona~y                                
Proportion of Demo~s        0.671*          0.979** 
                          (0.406)         (0.476)   

Similarity of Inte~s                       -1.125*  
                                          (0.666)   

Number of Members                           0.101*  
                                          (0.053)   

Offense Obligation                          1.532***
                                          (0.326)   

Consultation Oblig~n                       -0.852***
                                          (0.285)   

Constant                   -0.337**         0.240   
                          (0.147)         (0.643)   
----------------------------------------------------
Observations                  259             259   
AIC                       357.473         326.416   
----------------------------------------------------
Standard errors in parentheses
* p<0.10, ** p<0.05, *** p<0.01

. 
. 
. //==========================================
. // Cold War
. //==========================================
. 
.     cap drop coldwar

.         gen coldwar = year >= 1946 & year <= 1991

. 
.     // Hypothesis 1
. 
.     logit onlyconsul dem_prop if coldwar == 0

Iteration 0:   log likelihood = -223.95457  
Iteration 1:   log likelihood = -196.94931  
Iteration 2:   log likelihood = -196.69405  
Iteration 3:   log likelihood = -196.69385  
Iteration 4:   log likelihood = -196.69385  

Logistic regression                               Number of obs   =        346
                                                  LR chi2(1)      =      54.52
                                                  Prob > chi2     =     0.0000
Log likelihood = -196.69385                       Pseudo R2       =     0.1217

------------------------------------------------------------------------------
  onlyconsul |      Coef.   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
    dem_prop |   2.277468   .3284705     6.93   0.000     1.633678    2.921258
       _cons |  -1.489791   .1816921    -8.20   0.000    -1.845901    -1.13368
------------------------------------------------------------------------------

.     estimates store a7_1

. 
.     logit onlyconsul dem_prop min_s_2cat mem_num max_threat wartime if coldwar == 0

Iteration 0:   log likelihood = -223.95457  
Iteration 1:   log likelihood = -187.60369  
Iteration 2:   log likelihood = -186.17437  
Iteration 3:   log likelihood = -186.16328  
Iteration 4:   log likelihood = -186.16328  

Logistic regression                               Number of obs   =        346
                                                  LR chi2(5)      =      75.58
                                                  Prob > chi2     =     0.0000
Log likelihood = -186.16328                       Pseudo R2       =     0.1687

------------------------------------------------------------------------------
  onlyconsul |      Coef.   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
    dem_prop |   2.150554   .3389609     6.34   0.000     1.486203    2.814905
  min_s_2cat |  -1.503981   .8961263    -1.68   0.093    -3.260356    .2523948
     mem_num |  -.1044691      .0933    -1.12   0.263    -.2873338    .0783956
  max_threat |   1.463546   1.024231     1.43   0.153    -.5439096    3.471001
     wartime |  -1.584848   .4660856    -3.40   0.001    -2.498359   -.6713372
       _cons |  -.0154137   .9006113    -0.02   0.986    -1.780579    1.749752
------------------------------------------------------------------------------

.     estimates store a7_2

. 
.     logit onlyconsul dem_prop coldwar

Iteration 0:   log likelihood = -335.60891  
Iteration 1:   log likelihood = -308.07644  
Iteration 2:   log likelihood =  -307.7682  
Iteration 3:   log likelihood = -307.76809  
Iteration 4:   log likelihood = -307.76809  

Logistic regression                               Number of obs   =        536
                                                  LR chi2(2)      =      55.68
                                                  Prob > chi2     =     0.0000
Log likelihood = -307.76809                       Pseudo R2       =     0.0830

------------------------------------------------------------------------------
  onlyconsul |      Coef.   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
    dem_prop |   1.780427   .2558825     6.96   0.000     1.278907    2.281948
     coldwar |  -.3265182   .2099681    -1.56   0.120    -.7380482    .0850118
       _cons |  -1.289025   .1568411    -8.22   0.000    -1.596428   -.9816222
------------------------------------------------------------------------------

.     estimates store a7_3

. 
.     logit onlyconsul dem_prop min_s_2cat mem_num max_threat wartime coldwar

Iteration 0:   log likelihood = -335.60891  
Iteration 1:   log likelihood = -298.78531  
Iteration 2:   log likelihood = -297.34182  
Iteration 3:   log likelihood =  -297.3309  
Iteration 4:   log likelihood =  -297.3309  

Logistic regression                               Number of obs   =        536
                                                  LR chi2(6)      =      76.56
                                                  Prob > chi2     =     0.0000
Log likelihood =  -297.3309                       Pseudo R2       =     0.1141

------------------------------------------------------------------------------
  onlyconsul |      Coef.   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
    dem_prop |   1.565197   .2646336     5.91   0.000     1.046525     2.08387
  min_s_2cat |  -1.641277   .5784932    -2.84   0.005    -2.775103   -.5074511
     mem_num |  -.1385235   .0730687    -1.90   0.058    -.2817355    .0046886
  max_threat |  -.7061522    .809827    -0.87   0.383    -2.293384    .8810795
     wartime |  -1.223294   .3767934    -3.25   0.001    -1.961796   -.4847926
     coldwar |  -.4858486   .2487843    -1.95   0.051    -.9734569    .0017597
       _cons |   .7692333   .6289614     1.22   0.221    -.4635084    2.001975
------------------------------------------------------------------------------

.     estimates store a7_4

. 
.     /////////////////////////
>     //     Table A.7
.     /////////////////////////
> 
.     esttab a7_1 a7_2 a7_3 a7_4, aic se star(* 0.10 ** 0.05 *** 0.01) b(%9.3f) label

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                              (1)             (2)             (3)             (4)   
                     Consultati~y    Consultati~y    Consultati~y    Consultati~y   
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Consultation Only                                                                   
Proportion of Demo~s        2.277***        2.151***        1.780***        1.565***
                          (0.328)         (0.339)         (0.256)         (0.265)   

Similarity of Inte~s                       -1.504*                         -1.641***
                                          (0.896)                         (0.578)   

Number of Members                          -0.104                          -0.139*  
                                          (0.093)                         (0.073)   

Threat Level                                1.464                          -0.706   
                                          (1.024)                         (0.810)   

War Time                                   -1.585***                       -1.223***
                                          (0.466)                         (0.377)   

coldwar                                                    -0.327          -0.486*  
                                                          (0.210)         (0.249)   

Constant                   -1.490***       -0.015          -1.289***        0.769   
                          (0.182)         (0.901)         (0.157)         (0.629)   
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Observations                  346             346             536             536   
AIC                       397.388         384.327         621.536         608.662   
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Standard errors in parentheses
* p<0.10, ** p<0.05, *** p<0.01

. 
. 
.     // Hypothesis 2
. 
.     logit defcon dem_prop if defense == 1 & coldwar == 0

Iteration 0:   log likelihood = -88.772693  
Iteration 1:   log likelihood = -86.920786  
Iteration 2:   log likelihood = -86.915263  
Iteration 3:   log likelihood = -86.915263  

Logistic regression                               Number of obs   =        131
                                                  LR chi2(1)      =       3.71
                                                  Prob > chi2     =     0.0539
Log likelihood = -86.915263                       Pseudo R2       =     0.0209

------------------------------------------------------------------------------
      defcon |      Coef.   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
    dem_prop |    1.27225   .6949864     1.83   0.067    -.0898984    2.634398
       _cons |   .1581862   .2040521     0.78   0.438    -.2417487     .558121
------------------------------------------------------------------------------

.     estimates store a8_1

. 
.     logit defcon dem_prop min_s_2cat mem_num offense consul if defense == 1 & coldwar == 0

Iteration 0:   log likelihood = -88.772693  
Iteration 1:   log likelihood = -82.813793  
Iteration 2:   log likelihood = -82.772508  
Iteration 3:   log likelihood = -82.772504  

Logistic regression                               Number of obs   =        131
                                                  LR chi2(5)      =      12.00
                                                  Prob > chi2     =     0.0348
Log likelihood = -82.772504                       Pseudo R2       =     0.0676

------------------------------------------------------------------------------
      defcon |      Coef.   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
    dem_prop |    1.59932   .7192714     2.22   0.026     .1895742    3.009066
  min_s_2cat |  -.5720472   .9976522    -0.57   0.566     -2.52741    1.383315
     mem_num |  -.0292714   .0625267    -0.47   0.640    -.1518215    .0932787
     offense |   .8090263   .4005161     2.02   0.043     .0240291    1.594024
      consul |  -.6391975    .380235    -1.68   0.093    -1.384444    .1060494
       _cons |   .6921336   .9693996     0.71   0.475    -1.207855    2.592122
------------------------------------------------------------------------------

.     estimates store a8_2

. 
.     logit defcon dem_prop coldwar if defense == 1

Iteration 0:   log likelihood = -178.91609  
Iteration 1:   log likelihood = -166.18113  
Iteration 2:   log likelihood = -166.13068  
Iteration 3:   log likelihood = -166.13067  

Logistic regression                               Number of obs   =        260
                                                  LR chi2(2)      =      25.57
                                                  Prob > chi2     =     0.0000
Log likelihood = -166.13067                       Pseudo R2       =     0.0715

------------------------------------------------------------------------------
      defcon |      Coef.   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
    dem_prop |   .9427381   .4248312     2.22   0.026     .1100842    1.775392
     coldwar |   -1.22353   .2662285    -4.60   0.000    -1.745329    -.701732
       _cons |   .2053208   .1895729     1.08   0.279    -.1662353    .5768768
------------------------------------------------------------------------------

.     estimates store a8_3

. 
.     logit defcon dem_prop min_s_2cat mem_num offense consul coldwar if defense == 1

Iteration 0:   log likelihood = -178.91609  
Iteration 1:   log likelihood = -150.49864  
Iteration 2:   log likelihood = -150.25849  
Iteration 3:   log likelihood = -150.25787  
Iteration 4:   log likelihood = -150.25787  

Logistic regression                               Number of obs   =        260
                                                  LR chi2(6)      =      57.32
                                                  Prob > chi2     =     0.0000
Log likelihood = -150.25787                       Pseudo R2       =     0.1602

------------------------------------------------------------------------------
      defcon |      Coef.   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
    dem_prop |   1.076126   .4878957     2.21   0.027     .1198678    2.032384
  min_s_2cat |  -1.484439   .7099087    -2.09   0.037    -2.875835   -.0930434
     mem_num |   .1000709   .0538322     1.86   0.063    -.0054384    .2055801
     offense |   1.330682   .3394278     3.92   0.000     .6654158    1.995948
      consul |  -.8546963   .2954732    -2.89   0.004    -1.433813   -.2755796
     coldwar |  -1.079159   .2892334    -3.73   0.000    -1.646045   -.5122715
       _cons |   1.087888   .7078614     1.54   0.124    -.2994947    2.475271
------------------------------------------------------------------------------

.     estimates store a8_4

. 
.     /////////////////////////
>     //     Table A.8
.     /////////////////////////
> 
.     esttab a8_1 a8_2 a8_3 a8_4, aic se star(* 0.10 ** 0.05 *** 0.01) b(%9.3f) label

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                              (1)             (2)             (3)             (4)   
                     Defense Co~y    Defense Co~y    Defense Co~y    Defense Co~y   
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Defense Conditiona~y                                                                
Proportion of Demo~s        1.272*          1.599**         0.943**         1.076** 
                          (0.695)         (0.719)         (0.425)         (0.488)   

Similarity of Inte~s                       -0.572                          -1.484** 
                                          (0.998)                         (0.710)   

Number of Members                          -0.029                           0.100*  
                                          (0.063)                         (0.054)   

Offense Obligation                          0.809**                         1.331***
                                          (0.401)                         (0.339)   

Consultation Oblig~n                       -0.639*                         -0.855***
                                          (0.380)                         (0.295)   

coldwar                                                    -1.224***       -1.079***
                                                          (0.266)         (0.289)   

Constant                    0.158           0.692           0.205           1.088   
                          (0.204)         (0.969)         (0.190)         (0.708)   
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Observations                  131             131             260             260   
AIC                       177.831         177.545         338.261         314.516   
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Standard errors in parentheses
* p<0.10, ** p<0.05, *** p<0.01

. 
. 
. //==========================================
. // US alliances
. //==========================================
. 
.     gen us_alliance = ///
>         mem1==2 | mem2==2 | mem3==2 | mem4==2 | mem5==2 | mem6==2 | mem7==2 | mem8==2 | mem9==2 | mem10
> ==2 | ///
>         mem11==2 | mem12==2 | mem13==2 | mem14==2 | mem15==2 | mem16==2 | mem17==2 | mem18==2 | mem19==
> 2 | mem20==2 | ///
>         mem21==2 | mem22==2 | mem23==2 | mem24==2 | mem25==2 | mem26==2 | mem27==2 | mem28==2 | mem29==
> 2 | mem30==2 | ///
>         mem31==2 | mem32==2 | mem33==2 | mem34==2 | mem35==2 | mem36==2 | mem37==2 | mem38==2 | mem39==
> 2 | mem40==2 | ///
>         mem41==2 | mem42==2 | mem43==2

. 
.     // Hypothesis 1
. 
.     logit onlyconsul dem_prop if us_alliance == 0

Iteration 0:   log likelihood = -321.77877  
Iteration 1:   log likelihood = -292.68697  
Iteration 2:   log likelihood = -292.41344  
Iteration 3:   log likelihood = -292.41338  
Iteration 4:   log likelihood = -292.41338  

Logistic regression                               Number of obs   =        510
                                                  LR chi2(1)      =      58.73
                                                  Prob > chi2     =     0.0000
Log likelihood = -292.41338                       Pseudo R2       =     0.0913

------------------------------------------------------------------------------
  onlyconsul |      Coef.   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
    dem_prop |   1.932382   .2618927     7.38   0.000     1.419082    2.445683
       _cons |   -1.40026   .1406807    -9.95   0.000     -1.67599   -1.124531
------------------------------------------------------------------------------

.     estimates store a9_1

. 
.     logit onlyconsul dem_prop min_s_2cat mem_num max_threat wartime if us_alliance == 0

Iteration 0:   log likelihood = -321.77877  
Iteration 1:   log likelihood = -279.31618  
Iteration 2:   log likelihood = -277.79887  
Iteration 3:   log likelihood = -277.78823  
Iteration 4:   log likelihood = -277.78822  

Logistic regression                               Number of obs   =        510
                                                  LR chi2(5)      =      87.98
                                                  Prob > chi2     =     0.0000
Log likelihood = -277.78822                       Pseudo R2       =     0.1367

------------------------------------------------------------------------------
  onlyconsul |      Coef.   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
    dem_prop |   1.684594    .270509     6.23   0.000     1.154406    2.214782
  min_s_2cat |   -3.21075   .7325685    -4.38   0.000    -4.646558   -1.774942
     mem_num |  -.1695041   .1028519    -1.65   0.099    -.3710902     .032082
  max_threat |  -1.609932   .7740987    -2.08   0.038    -3.127138   -.0927267
     wartime |  -1.203036    .409628    -2.94   0.003    -2.005892   -.4001801
       _cons |   2.168897   .7620243     2.85   0.004     .6753565    3.662437
------------------------------------------------------------------------------

.     estimates store a9_2

. 
.     logit onlyconsul dem_prop us_alliance

Iteration 0:   log likelihood = -335.60891  
Iteration 1:   log likelihood = -306.33928  
Iteration 2:   log likelihood = -306.02429  
Iteration 3:   log likelihood = -306.02414  
Iteration 4:   log likelihood = -306.02414  

Logistic regression                               Number of obs   =        536
                                                  LR chi2(2)      =      59.17
                                                  Prob > chi2     =     0.0000
Log likelihood = -306.02414                       Pseudo R2       =     0.0882

------------------------------------------------------------------------------
  onlyconsul |      Coef.   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
    dem_prop |   1.883374   .2584334     7.29   0.000     1.376854    2.389894
 us_alliance |  -1.164014   .5214472    -2.23   0.026    -2.186032    -.141996
       _cons |   -1.38188   .1393879    -9.91   0.000    -1.655076   -1.108685
------------------------------------------------------------------------------

.     estimates store a9_3

. 
.     logit onlyconsul dem_prop min_s_2cat mem_num max_threat wartime us_alliance

Iteration 0:   log likelihood = -335.60891  
Iteration 1:   log likelihood = -295.11146  
Iteration 2:   log likelihood = -293.13293  
Iteration 3:   log likelihood = -293.10741  
Iteration 4:   log likelihood = -293.10741  

Logistic regression                               Number of obs   =        536
                                                  LR chi2(6)      =      85.00
                                                  Prob > chi2     =     0.0000
Log likelihood = -293.10741                       Pseudo R2       =     0.1266

------------------------------------------------------------------------------
  onlyconsul |      Coef.   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
    dem_prop |   1.647324   .2659683     6.19   0.000     1.126036    2.168613
  min_s_2cat |  -2.734329    .692585    -3.95   0.000    -4.091771   -1.376888
     mem_num |  -.1047584   .0763728    -1.37   0.170    -.2544464    .0449296
  max_threat |   -1.82515    .759448    -2.40   0.016    -3.313641   -.3366593
     wartime |  -1.141821   .3811771    -3.00   0.003    -1.888914   -.3947275
 us_alliance |  -2.110192   .6504835    -3.24   0.001    -3.385116   -.8352676
       _cons |   1.692803   .7094104     2.39   0.017     .3023845    3.083222
------------------------------------------------------------------------------

.     estimates store a9_4

. 
.     /////////////////////////
>     //     Table A.9
.     /////////////////////////
> 
.     esttab a9_1 a9_2 a9_3 a9_4, aic se star(* 0.10 ** 0.05 *** 0.01) b(%9.3f) label

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                              (1)             (2)             (3)             (4)   
                     Consultati~y    Consultati~y    Consultati~y    Consultati~y   
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Consultation Only                                                                   
Proportion of Demo~s        1.932***        1.685***        1.883***        1.647***
                          (0.262)         (0.271)         (0.258)         (0.266)   

Similarity of Inte~s                       -3.211***                       -2.734***
                                          (0.733)                         (0.693)   

Number of Members                          -0.170*                         -0.105   
                                          (0.103)                         (0.076)   

Threat Level                               -1.610**                        -1.825** 
                                          (0.774)                         (0.759)   

War Time                                   -1.203***                       -1.142***
                                          (0.410)                         (0.381)   

us_alliance                                                -1.164**        -2.110***
                                                          (0.521)         (0.650)   

Constant                   -1.400***        2.169***       -1.382***        1.693** 
                          (0.141)         (0.762)         (0.139)         (0.709)   
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Observations                  510             510             536             536   
AIC                       588.827         567.576         618.048         600.215   
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Standard errors in parentheses
* p<0.10, ** p<0.05, *** p<0.01

. 
. 
.     // Hypothesis 2
. 
.     logit defcon dem_prop if defense == 1 & us_alliance == 0

Iteration 0:   log likelihood = -164.21562  
Iteration 1:   log likelihood = -163.24905  
Iteration 2:   log likelihood = -163.24894  
Iteration 3:   log likelihood = -163.24894  

Logistic regression                               Number of obs   =        240
                                                  LR chi2(1)      =       1.93
                                                  Prob > chi2     =     0.1644
Log likelihood = -163.24894                       Pseudo R2       =     0.0059

------------------------------------------------------------------------------
      defcon |      Coef.   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
    dem_prop |   .6131713   .4421623     1.39   0.166    -.2534508    1.479793
       _cons |  -.3680126   .1494576    -2.46   0.014    -.6609441   -.0750812
------------------------------------------------------------------------------

.     estimates store a10_1

. 
.     logit defcon dem_prop min_s_2cat mem_num offense consul if defense == 1 & us_alliance == 0

Iteration 0:   log likelihood = -164.21562  
Iteration 1:   log likelihood =  -144.4686  
Iteration 2:   log likelihood = -144.42671  
Iteration 3:   log likelihood = -144.42671  

Logistic regression                               Number of obs   =        240
                                                  LR chi2(5)      =      39.58
                                                  Prob > chi2     =     0.0000
Log likelihood = -144.42671                       Pseudo R2       =     0.1205

------------------------------------------------------------------------------
      defcon |      Coef.   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
    dem_prop |    .873938   .4934069     1.77   0.077    -.0931217    1.840998
  min_s_2cat |  -1.767292   .9164803    -1.93   0.054    -3.563561     .028976
     mem_num |   .1072606   .0759904     1.41   0.158    -.0416778     .256199
     offense |   1.536361   .3308918     4.64   0.000     .8878246    2.184897
      consul |  -.8561308   .2952262    -2.90   0.004    -1.434764    -.277498
       _cons |   .7754765    .852349     0.91   0.363    -.8950969     2.44605
------------------------------------------------------------------------------

.     estimates store a10_2

. 
.     logit defcon dem_prop us_alliance if defense == 1

Iteration 0:   log likelihood = -178.91609  
Iteration 1:   log likelihood =   -176.381  
Iteration 2:   log likelihood =  -176.3804  
Iteration 3:   log likelihood =  -176.3804  

Logistic regression                               Number of obs   =        260
                                                  LR chi2(2)      =       5.07
                                                  Prob > chi2     =     0.0792
Log likelihood =  -176.3804                       Pseudo R2       =     0.0142

------------------------------------------------------------------------------
      defcon |      Coef.   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
    dem_prop |   .5328795   .4261439     1.25   0.211    -.3023472    1.368106
 us_alliance |   .6818003   .5137566     1.33   0.184    -.3251442    1.688745
       _cons |  -.3548769   .1481023    -2.40   0.017     -.645152   -.0646019
------------------------------------------------------------------------------

.     estimates store a10_3

. 
.     logit defcon dem_prop min_s_2cat mem_num offense consul us_alliance if defense == 1

Iteration 0:   log likelihood = -178.91609  
Iteration 1:   log likelihood = -157.47081  
Iteration 2:   log likelihood = -157.40889  
Iteration 3:   log likelihood = -157.40883  
Iteration 4:   log likelihood = -157.40883  

Logistic regression                               Number of obs   =        260
                                                  LR chi2(6)      =      43.01
                                                  Prob > chi2     =     0.0000
Log likelihood = -157.40883                       Pseudo R2       =     0.1202

------------------------------------------------------------------------------
      defcon |      Coef.   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
    dem_prop |   .9835026   .4780848     2.06   0.040     .0464737    1.920532
  min_s_2cat |  -.9975009   .8060993    -1.24   0.216    -2.577426    .5824247
     mem_num |   .1022585   .0549709     1.86   0.063    -.0054825    .2099994
     offense |   1.541138   .3264761     4.72   0.000     .9012571     2.18102
      consul |  -.8597369   .2863829    -3.00   0.003    -1.421037   -.2984367
 us_alliance |   .2320125   .6892837     0.34   0.736    -1.118959    1.582984
       _cons |   .1206416   .7408908     0.16   0.871    -1.331478    1.572761
------------------------------------------------------------------------------

.     estimates store a10_4

. 
.     /////////////////////////
>     //     Table A.10
.     /////////////////////////
> 
.     esttab a10_1 a10_2 a10_3 a10_4, aic se star(* 0.10 ** 0.05 *** 0.01) b(%9.3f) label

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                              (1)             (2)             (3)             (4)   
                     Defense Co~y    Defense Co~y    Defense Co~y    Defense Co~y   
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Defense Conditiona~y                                                                
Proportion of Demo~s        0.613           0.874*          0.533           0.984** 
                          (0.442)         (0.493)         (0.426)         (0.478)   

Similarity of Inte~s                       -1.767*                         -0.998   
                                          (0.916)                         (0.806)   

Number of Members                           0.107                           0.102*  
                                          (0.076)                         (0.055)   

Offense Obligation                          1.536***                        1.541***
                                          (0.331)                         (0.326)   

Consultation Oblig~n                       -0.856***                       -0.860***
                                          (0.295)                         (0.286)   

us_alliance                                                 0.682           0.232   
                                                          (0.514)         (0.689)   

Constant                   -0.368**         0.775          -0.355**         0.121   
                          (0.149)         (0.852)         (0.148)         (0.741)   
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Observations                  240             240             260             260   
AIC                       330.498         300.853         358.761         328.818   
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Standard errors in parentheses
* p<0.10, ** p<0.05, *** p<0.01

. 
. 
. //==========================================
. // Exclude 4810 & 4985
. //==========================================
. 
. // Exclude those that started out as nonaggression pacts (4810 & 4985)
. 
. gen start_nonagg = atopid == 4810 | atopid == 4985

. 
. 
.     // Hypothesis 1
. 
.     logit onlyconsul dem_prop if start_nonagg == 0

Iteration 0:   log likelihood = -334.08164  
Iteration 1:   log likelihood = -307.48773  
Iteration 2:   log likelihood = -307.21783  
Iteration 3:   log likelihood = -307.21778  
Iteration 4:   log likelihood = -307.21778  

Logistic regression                               Number of obs   =        534
                                                  LR chi2(1)      =      53.73
                                                  Prob > chi2     =     0.0000
Log likelihood = -307.21778                       Pseudo R2       =     0.0804

------------------------------------------------------------------------------
  onlyconsul |      Coef.   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
    dem_prop |   1.813705   .2554282     7.10   0.000     1.313075    2.314335
       _cons |   -1.41513   .1400731   -10.10   0.000    -1.689669   -1.140592
------------------------------------------------------------------------------

.     estimates store a11_1

. 
.     logit onlyconsul dem_prop min_s_2cat mem_num max_threat wartime if start_nonagg == 0

Iteration 0:   log likelihood = -334.08164  
Iteration 1:   log likelihood = -298.93813  
Iteration 2:   log likelihood =  -297.5468  
Iteration 3:   log likelihood = -297.53233  
Iteration 4:   log likelihood = -297.53231  

Logistic regression                               Number of obs   =        534
                                                  LR chi2(5)      =      73.10
                                                  Prob > chi2     =     0.0000
Log likelihood = -297.53231                       Pseudo R2       =     0.1094

------------------------------------------------------------------------------
  onlyconsul |      Coef.   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
    dem_prop |   1.597864   .2642277     6.05   0.000     1.079987     2.11574
  min_s_2cat |  -1.457267   .5751372    -2.53   0.011    -2.584515   -.3300185
     mem_num |  -.1471507   .0775914    -1.90   0.058    -.2992271    .0049257
  max_threat |  -1.397915   .7366399    -1.90   0.058    -2.841703    .0458725
     wartime |  -1.112514   .3748302    -2.97   0.003    -1.847167   -.3778601
       _cons |   .6063481   .6330049     0.96   0.338    -.6343186    1.847015
------------------------------------------------------------------------------

.     estimates store a11_2

. 
.     /////////////////////////
>     //     Table A.11
.     /////////////////////////
> 
.     esttab a11_1 a11_2, aic se star(* 0.10 ** 0.05 *** 0.01) b(%9.3f) label

----------------------------------------------------
                              (1)             (2)   
                     Consultati~y    Consultati~y   
----------------------------------------------------
Consultation Only                                   
Proportion of Demo~s        1.814***        1.598***
                          (0.255)         (0.264)   

Similarity of Inte~s                       -1.457** 
                                          (0.575)   

Number of Members                          -0.147*  
                                          (0.078)   

Threat Level                               -1.398*  
                                          (0.737)   

War Time                                   -1.113***
                                          (0.375)   

Constant                   -1.415***        0.606   
                          (0.140)         (0.633)   
----------------------------------------------------
Observations                  534             534   
AIC                       618.436         607.065   
----------------------------------------------------
Standard errors in parentheses
* p<0.10, ** p<0.05, *** p<0.01

. 
. 
.     // Hypothesis 2
. 
.     logit defcon dem_prop if defense == 1 & start_nonagg == 0

Iteration 0:   log likelihood = -178.11522  
Iteration 1:   log likelihood =  -176.5534  
Iteration 2:   log likelihood = -176.55335  
Iteration 3:   log likelihood = -176.55335  

Logistic regression                               Number of obs   =        259
                                                  LR chi2(1)      =       3.12
                                                  Prob > chi2     =     0.0772
Log likelihood = -176.55335                       Pseudo R2       =     0.0088

------------------------------------------------------------------------------
      defcon |      Coef.   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
    dem_prop |   .7072046    .402548     1.76   0.079    -.0817749    1.496184
       _cons |  -.3450048   .1475652    -2.34   0.019    -.6342272   -.0557823
------------------------------------------------------------------------------

.     estimates store a12_1

. 
.     logit defcon dem_prop min_s_2cat mem_num offense consul if defense == 1 & start_nonagg == 0

Iteration 0:   log likelihood = -178.11522  
Iteration 1:   log likelihood =  -156.8953  
Iteration 2:   log likelihood = -156.85123  
Iteration 3:   log likelihood = -156.85121  
Iteration 4:   log likelihood = -156.85121  

Logistic regression                               Number of obs   =        259
                                                  LR chi2(5)      =      42.53
                                                  Prob > chi2     =     0.0000
Log likelihood = -156.85121                       Pseudo R2       =     0.1194

------------------------------------------------------------------------------
      defcon |      Coef.   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
    dem_prop |   .9807636   .4751069     2.06   0.039     .0495711    1.911956
  min_s_2cat |  -1.193827   .6675739    -1.79   0.074    -2.502248    .1145939
     mem_num |   .0925548   .0538039     1.72   0.085    -.0128989    .1980085
     offense |   1.535383   .3259828     4.71   0.000      .896469    2.174298
      consul |  -.8594426   .2858707    -3.01   0.003    -1.419739   -.2991462
       _cons |   .3172246    .649169     0.49   0.625    -.9551233    1.589573
------------------------------------------------------------------------------

.     estimates store a12_2

. 
.     /////////////////////////
>     //     Table A.12
.     /////////////////////////
> 
.     esttab a12_1 a12_2, aic se star(* 0.10 ** 0.05 *** 0.01) b(%9.3f) label

----------------------------------------------------
                              (1)             (2)   
                     Defense Co~y    Defense Co~y   
----------------------------------------------------
Defense Conditiona~y                                
Proportion of Demo~s        0.707*          0.981** 
                          (0.403)         (0.475)   

Similarity of Inte~s                       -1.194*  
                                          (0.668)   

Number of Members                           0.093*  
                                          (0.054)   

Offense Obligation                          1.535***
                                          (0.326)   

Consultation Oblig~n                       -0.859***
                                          (0.286)   

Constant                   -0.345**         0.317   
                          (0.148)         (0.649)   
----------------------------------------------------
Observations                  259             259   
AIC                       357.107         325.702   
----------------------------------------------------
Standard errors in parentheses
* p<0.10, ** p<0.05, *** p<0.01

. 
. 
. //==========================================
. // Include neutrality
. //==========================================
. 
. // Recode DV so it includes consultation pacts that have neutrality obligation
. 
.     gen onlyconsul_neu = consul==1 &  defense==0 & offense==0

.     recode onlyconsul_neu (0=.) if onlyconsul == .
(onlyconsul_neu: 5360 changes made)

.     tab onlyconsul_neu

onlyconsul_ |
        neu |      Freq.     Percent        Cum.
------------+-----------------------------------
          0 |        318       59.33       59.33
          1 |        218       40.67      100.00
------------+-----------------------------------
      Total |        536      100.00

. 
.         
.         logit onlyconsul_neu dem_prop 

Iteration 0:   log likelihood = -362.14365  
Iteration 1:   log likelihood = -319.22066  
Iteration 2:   log likelihood = -319.03713  
Iteration 3:   log likelihood = -319.03704  
Iteration 4:   log likelihood = -319.03704  

Logistic regression                               Number of obs   =        536
                                                  LR chi2(1)      =      86.21
                                                  Prob > chi2     =     0.0000
Log likelihood = -319.03704                       Pseudo R2       =     0.1190

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
onlyconsul_neu |      Coef.   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
---------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
      dem_prop |   2.290032   .2648294     8.65   0.000     1.770976    2.809089
         _cons |  -1.147725   .1311581    -8.75   0.000     -1.40479   -.8906596
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

.     estimates store a13_1

. 
.         logit onlyconsul_neu dem_prop min_s_2cat mem_num max_threat wartime

Iteration 0:   log likelihood = -362.14365  
Iteration 1:   log likelihood = -302.42321  
Iteration 2:   log likelihood = -300.90607  
Iteration 3:   log likelihood = -300.88317  
Iteration 4:   log likelihood = -300.88314  

Logistic regression                               Number of obs   =        536
                                                  LR chi2(5)      =     122.52
                                                  Prob > chi2     =     0.0000
Log likelihood = -300.88314                       Pseudo R2       =     0.1692

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
onlyconsul_neu |      Coef.   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
---------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
      dem_prop |   2.139349   .2789682     7.67   0.000     1.592581    2.686116
    min_s_2cat |  -.7881728   .5856908    -1.35   0.178    -1.936106    .3597601
       mem_num |  -.1974074   .0798068    -2.47   0.013    -.3538258    -.040989
    max_threat |   -2.29482   .7189379    -3.19   0.001    -3.703912   -.8857273
       wartime |   -1.42752   .3667356    -3.89   0.000    -2.146308   -.7087311
         _cons |   .6813621   .6348774     1.07   0.283    -.5629748    1.925699
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

.     estimates store a13_2

. 
. 
.     /////////////////////////
>     //     Table A.13
.     /////////////////////////
> 
.     esttab a13_1 a13_2, aic se star(* 0.10 ** 0.05 *** 0.01) b(%9.3f) label

----------------------------------------------------
                              (1)             (2)   
                     onlyconsul~u    onlyconsul~u   
----------------------------------------------------
onlyconsul_neu                                      
Proportion of Demo~s        2.290***        2.139***
                          (0.265)         (0.279)   

Similarity of Inte~s                       -0.788   
                                          (0.586)   

Number of Members                          -0.197** 
                                          (0.080)   

Threat Level                               -2.295***
                                          (0.719)   

War Time                                   -1.428***
                                          (0.367)   

Constant                   -1.148***        0.681   
                          (0.131)         (0.635)   
----------------------------------------------------
Observations                  536             536   
AIC                       642.074         613.766   
----------------------------------------------------
Standard errors in parentheses
* p<0.10, ** p<0.05, *** p<0.01

. 
. 
. //==========================================
. // Exclude neutrality only pacts
. //==========================================
. 
. // Identify neutrality only pacts
. 
.     gen onlyneu = neutral==1 & defense==0 & offense==0 & consul==0

.     tab onlyneu

    onlyneu |      Freq.     Percent        Cum.
------------+-----------------------------------
          0 |      5,852       99.25       99.25
          1 |         44        0.75      100.00
------------+-----------------------------------
      Total |      5,896      100.00

.     recode onlyneu (0=.) if onlyconsul == .
(onlyneu: 5360 changes made)

. 
.         
.         logit onlyconsul dem_prop if onlyneu == 0

Iteration 0:   log likelihood = -317.79446  
Iteration 1:   log likelihood = -292.27861  
Iteration 2:   log likelihood = -292.11868  
Iteration 3:   log likelihood = -292.11866  

Logistic regression                               Number of obs   =        492
                                                  LR chi2(1)      =      51.35
                                                  Prob > chi2     =     0.0000
Log likelihood = -292.11866                       Pseudo R2       =     0.0808

------------------------------------------------------------------------------
  onlyconsul |      Coef.   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
    dem_prop |   1.809058   .2615362     6.92   0.000     1.296456    2.321659
       _cons |  -1.278228   .1413206    -9.04   0.000    -1.555212   -1.001245
------------------------------------------------------------------------------

.     estimates store a14_1

. 
.         logit onlyconsul dem_prop min_s_2cat mem_num max_threat wartime if onlyneu==0

Iteration 0:   log likelihood = -317.79446  
Iteration 1:   log likelihood = -281.19014  
Iteration 2:   log likelihood = -279.88396  
Iteration 3:   log likelihood = -279.86789  
Iteration 4:   log likelihood = -279.86789  

Logistic regression                               Number of obs   =        492
                                                  LR chi2(5)      =      75.85
                                                  Prob > chi2     =     0.0000
Log likelihood = -279.86789                       Pseudo R2       =     0.1193

------------------------------------------------------------------------------
  onlyconsul |      Coef.   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
    dem_prop |   1.541071   .2728134     5.65   0.000     1.006367    2.075776
  min_s_2cat |  -1.466318   .5845598    -2.51   0.012    -2.612034   -.3206019
     mem_num |  -.1571291   .0750107    -2.09   0.036    -.3041474   -.0101108
  max_threat |  -2.116625   .7657972    -2.76   0.006     -3.61756   -.6156904
     wartime |  -1.216947   .3810222    -3.19   0.001    -1.963737   -.4701576
       _cons |   .9866382   .6490014     1.52   0.128    -.2853813    2.258658
------------------------------------------------------------------------------

.     estimates store a14_2

. 
. 
.     /////////////////////////
>     //     Table A.14
.     /////////////////////////
> 
.     esttab a14_1 a14_2, aic se star(* 0.10 ** 0.05 *** 0.01) b(%9.3f) label

----------------------------------------------------
                              (1)             (2)   
                     Consultati~y    Consultati~y   
----------------------------------------------------
Consultation Only                                   
Proportion of Demo~s        1.809***        1.541***
                          (0.262)         (0.273)   

Similarity of Inte~s                       -1.466** 
                                          (0.585)   

Number of Members                          -0.157** 
                                          (0.075)   

Threat Level                               -2.117***
                                          (0.766)   

War Time                                   -1.217***
                                          (0.381)   

Constant                   -1.278***        0.987   
                          (0.141)         (0.649)   
----------------------------------------------------
Observations                  492             492   
AIC                       588.237         571.736   
----------------------------------------------------
Standard errors in parentheses
* p<0.10, ** p<0.05, *** p<0.01

. 
. 
. //==========================================
. // Use only polity2 scores
. //==========================================
. 
. // Not coding missing democracy scores (Raw Polity)
. 
.     // Hypothesis 1
. 
.         logit onlyconsul dem_prop_RawPolity

Iteration 0:   log likelihood = -334.45225  
Iteration 1:   log likelihood = -304.29954  
Iteration 2:   log likelihood = -303.99043  
Iteration 3:   log likelihood = -303.99034  
Iteration 4:   log likelihood = -303.99034  

Logistic regression                               Number of obs   =        533
                                                  LR chi2(1)      =      60.92
                                                  Prob > chi2     =     0.0000
Log likelihood = -303.99034                       Pseudo R2       =     0.0911

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
        onlyconsul |      Coef.   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
dem_prop_RawPolity |   1.981966   .2642032     7.50   0.000     1.464138    2.499795
             _cons |  -1.442808   .1405858   -10.26   0.000    -1.718352   -1.167265
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

.     estimates store a15_1

. 
.         logit onlyconsul dem_prop_RawPolity min_s_2cat mem_num max_threat wartime

Iteration 0:   log likelihood = -334.45225  
Iteration 1:   log likelihood = -296.52309  
Iteration 2:   log likelihood = -295.28624  
Iteration 3:   log likelihood = -295.27914  
Iteration 4:   log likelihood = -295.27913  

Logistic regression                               Number of obs   =        533
                                                  LR chi2(5)      =      78.35
                                                  Prob > chi2     =     0.0000
Log likelihood = -295.27913                       Pseudo R2       =     0.1171

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
        onlyconsul |      Coef.   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
dem_prop_RawPolity |   1.762095   .2729905     6.45   0.000     1.227044    2.297147
        min_s_2cat |  -1.370512   .5743139    -2.39   0.017    -2.496146   -.2448775
           mem_num |  -.1152182   .0701108    -1.64   0.100    -.2526329    .0221965
        max_threat |  -1.291292   .7381573    -1.75   0.080    -2.738053    .1554701
           wartime |  -1.113841   .3735279    -2.98   0.003    -1.845942   -.3817401
             _cons |   .4112686   .6274606     0.66   0.512    -.8185317    1.641069
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

.     estimates store a15_2

. 
. 
.     /////////////////////////
>     //     Table A.15
.     /////////////////////////
> 
.     esttab a15_1 a15_2, aic se star(* 0.10 ** 0.05 *** 0.01) b(%9.3f) label

----------------------------------------------------
                              (1)             (2)   
                     Consultati~y    Consultati~y   
----------------------------------------------------
Consultation Only                                   
Proportion of Demo~P        1.982***        1.762***
                          (0.264)         (0.273)   

Similarity of Inte~s                       -1.371** 
                                          (0.574)   

Number of Members                          -0.115   
                                          (0.070)   

Threat Level                               -1.291*  
                                          (0.738)   

War Time                                   -1.114***
                                          (0.374)   

Constant                   -1.443***        0.411   
                          (0.141)         (0.627)   
----------------------------------------------------
Observations                  533             533   
AIC                       611.981         602.558   
----------------------------------------------------
Standard errors in parentheses
* p<0.10, ** p<0.05, *** p<0.01

. 
. 
.     // Hypothesis 2
. 
.     logit defcon dem_prop_RawPolity if defense == 1

Iteration 0:   log likelihood = -177.10826  
Iteration 1:   log likelihood = -173.06292  
Iteration 2:   log likelihood =  -173.0614  
Iteration 3:   log likelihood =  -173.0614  

Logistic regression                               Number of obs   =        257
                                                  LR chi2(1)      =       8.09
                                                  Prob > chi2     =     0.0044
Log likelihood =  -173.0614                       Pseudo R2       =     0.0228

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
            defcon |      Coef.   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
dem_prop_RawPolity |   1.270057    .457475     2.78   0.005     .3734228    2.166692
             _cons |  -.3968353   .1484367    -2.67   0.008    -.6877659   -.1059046
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

.     estimates store a16_1

. 
.     logit defcon dem_prop_RawPolity min_s_2cat mem_num offense consul if defense == 1

Iteration 0:   log likelihood = -177.10826  
Iteration 1:   log likelihood = -153.82496  
Iteration 2:   log likelihood = -153.74649  
Iteration 3:   log likelihood = -153.74639  
Iteration 4:   log likelihood = -153.74639  

Logistic regression                               Number of obs   =        257
                                                  LR chi2(5)      =      46.72
                                                  Prob > chi2     =     0.0000
Log likelihood = -153.74639                       Pseudo R2       =     0.1319

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
            defcon |      Coef.   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
dem_prop_RawPolity |   1.643291   .5414958     3.03   0.002     .5819792    2.704604
        min_s_2cat |  -.8035512   .6781704    -1.18   0.236    -2.132741    .5256384
           mem_num |   .1198912   .0547156     2.19   0.028     .0126506    .2271318
           offense |    1.54629   .3282433     4.71   0.000     .9029452    2.189635
            consul |   -.863243    .289479    -2.98   0.003    -1.430612   -.2958745
             _cons |  -.1484356   .6598395    -0.22   0.822    -1.441697    1.144826
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

.     estimates store a16_2

. 
.     /////////////////////////
>     //     Table A.16
.     /////////////////////////
> 
.     esttab a16_1 a16_2, aic se star(* 0.10 ** 0.05 *** 0.01) b(%9.3f) label

----------------------------------------------------
                              (1)             (2)   
                     Defense Co~y    Defense Co~y   
----------------------------------------------------
Defense Conditiona~y                                
Proportion of Demo~P        1.270***        1.643***
                          (0.457)         (0.541)   

Similarity of Inte~s                       -0.804   
                                          (0.678)   

Number of Members                           0.120** 
                                          (0.055)   

Offense Obligation                          1.546***
                                          (0.328)   

Consultation Oblig~n                       -0.863***
                                          (0.289)   

Constant                   -0.397***       -0.148   
                          (0.148)         (0.660)   
----------------------------------------------------
Observations                  257             257   
AIC                       350.123         319.493   
----------------------------------------------------
Standard errors in parentheses
* p<0.10, ** p<0.05, *** p<0.01

. 
. 
. //==========================================
. // Drop an alliance with occupied members
. //==========================================
. 
.     // Hypothesis 1
. 
.         logit onlyconsul dem_prop if atopid != 2550

Iteration 0:   log likelihood = -335.22423  
Iteration 1:   log likelihood = -308.92201  
Iteration 2:   log likelihood = -308.66326  
Iteration 3:   log likelihood = -308.66321  
Iteration 4:   log likelihood = -308.66321  

Logistic regression                               Number of obs   =        535
                                                  LR chi2(1)      =      53.12
                                                  Prob > chi2     =     0.0000
Log likelihood = -308.66321                       Pseudo R2       =     0.0792

------------------------------------------------------------------------------
  onlyconsul |      Coef.   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
    dem_prop |   1.801044   .2549619     7.06   0.000     1.301328     2.30076
       _cons |  -1.403321   .1395094   -10.06   0.000    -1.676755   -1.129888
------------------------------------------------------------------------------

.     estimates store a17_1

. 
.         logit onlyconsul dem_prop min_s_2cat mem_num max_threat wartime if atopid != 2550

Iteration 0:   log likelihood = -335.22423  
Iteration 1:   log likelihood = -300.39781  
Iteration 2:   log likelihood = -299.24922  
Iteration 3:   log likelihood = -299.24446  
Iteration 4:   log likelihood = -299.24446  

Logistic regression                               Number of obs   =        535
                                                  LR chi2(5)      =      71.96
                                                  Prob > chi2     =     0.0000
Log likelihood = -299.24446                       Pseudo R2       =     0.1073

------------------------------------------------------------------------------
  onlyconsul |      Coef.   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
    dem_prop |   1.586296   .2636864     6.02   0.000      1.06948    2.103112
  min_s_2cat |  -1.451235   .5723519    -2.54   0.011    -2.573024   -.3294456
     mem_num |  -.1353512   .0729961    -1.85   0.064    -.2784209    .0077184
  max_threat |  -1.405326   .7341197    -1.91   0.056    -2.844174    .0335223
     wartime |  -1.120111   .3743746    -2.99   0.003    -1.853872   -.3863504
       _cons |   .5880743   .6259261     0.94   0.347    -.6387183    1.814867
------------------------------------------------------------------------------

.     estimates store a17_2

. 
. 
.     /////////////////////////
>     //     Table A.17
.     /////////////////////////
> 
.     esttab a17_1 a17_2, aic se star(* 0.10 ** 0.05 *** 0.01) b(%9.3f) label

----------------------------------------------------
                              (1)             (2)   
                     Consultati~y    Consultati~y   
----------------------------------------------------
Consultation Only                                   
Proportion of Demo~s        1.801***        1.586***
                          (0.255)         (0.264)   

Similarity of Inte~s                       -1.451** 
                                          (0.572)   

Number of Members                          -0.135*  
                                          (0.073)   

Threat Level                               -1.405*  
                                          (0.734)   

War Time                                   -1.120***
                                          (0.374)   

Constant                   -1.403***        0.588   
                          (0.140)         (0.626)   
----------------------------------------------------
Observations                  535             535   
AIC                       621.326         610.489   
----------------------------------------------------
Standard errors in parentheses
* p<0.10, ** p<0.05, *** p<0.01

. 
. 
.     // Hypothesis 2
. 
.     logit defcon dem_prop if defense == 1 & atopid != 2550

Iteration 0:   log likelihood = -178.11522  
Iteration 1:   log likelihood = -176.51701  
Iteration 2:   log likelihood = -176.51696  
Iteration 3:   log likelihood = -176.51696  

Logistic regression                               Number of obs   =        259
                                                  LR chi2(1)      =       3.20
                                                  Prob > chi2     =     0.0738
Log likelihood = -176.51696                       Pseudo R2       =     0.0090

------------------------------------------------------------------------------
      defcon |      Coef.   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
    dem_prop |   .7151721   .4024954     1.78   0.076    -.0737044    1.504049
       _cons |   -.346805   .1476489    -2.35   0.019    -.6361915   -.0574185
------------------------------------------------------------------------------

.     estimates store a18_1

. 
.     logit defcon dem_prop min_s_2cat mem_num offense consul if defense == 1 & atopid != 2550

Iteration 0:   log likelihood = -178.11522  
Iteration 1:   log likelihood = -157.46322  
Iteration 2:   log likelihood = -157.43632  
Iteration 3:   log likelihood = -157.43632  

Logistic regression                               Number of obs   =        259
                                                  LR chi2(5)      =      41.36
                                                  Prob > chi2     =     0.0000
Log likelihood = -157.43632                       Pseudo R2       =     0.1161

------------------------------------------------------------------------------
      defcon |      Coef.   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
    dem_prop |   .9989831   .4750852     2.10   0.035     .0678333    1.930133
  min_s_2cat |  -1.153519   .6670044    -1.73   0.084    -2.460823    .1537858
     mem_num |   .1047515   .0539311     1.94   0.052    -.0009515    .2104545
     offense |   1.531632   .3267241     4.69   0.000      .891265       2.172
      consul |  -.8511499   .2862327    -2.97   0.003    -1.412156    -.290144
       _cons |   .2508424   .6455882     0.39   0.698    -1.014487    1.516172
------------------------------------------------------------------------------

.     estimates store a18_2

. 
.     /////////////////////////
>     //     Table A.18
.     /////////////////////////
> 
.     esttab a18_1 a18_2, aic se star(* 0.10 ** 0.05 *** 0.01) b(%9.3f) label

----------------------------------------------------
                              (1)             (2)   
                     Defense Co~y    Defense Co~y   
----------------------------------------------------
Defense Conditiona~y                                
Proportion of Demo~s        0.715*          0.999** 
                          (0.402)         (0.475)   

Similarity of Inte~s                       -1.154*  
                                          (0.667)   

Number of Members                           0.105*  
                                          (0.054)   

Offense Obligation                          1.532***
                                          (0.327)   

Consultation Oblig~n                       -0.851***
                                          (0.286)   

Constant                   -0.347**         0.251   
                          (0.148)         (0.646)   
----------------------------------------------------
Observations                  259             259   
AIC                       357.034         326.873   
----------------------------------------------------
Standard errors in parentheses
* p<0.10, ** p<0.05, *** p<0.01

. 
. 
. //==========================================
. // Mean similarity instead of minimum
. //==========================================
. 
.     // Hypothesis 1
. 
.         logit onlyconsul dem_prop mean_s_2cat mem_num max_threat wartime

Iteration 0:   log likelihood = -335.60891  
Iteration 1:   log likelihood = -300.74881  
Iteration 2:   log likelihood = -299.61189  
Iteration 3:   log likelihood = -299.60648  
Iteration 4:   log likelihood = -299.60648  

Logistic regression                               Number of obs   =        536
                                                  LR chi2(5)      =      72.00
                                                  Prob > chi2     =     0.0000
Log likelihood = -299.60648                       Pseudo R2       =     0.1073

------------------------------------------------------------------------------
  onlyconsul |      Coef.   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
    dem_prop |   1.593074   .2638442     6.04   0.000     1.075949    2.110199
 mean_s_2cat |  -1.472904   .6156749    -2.39   0.017    -2.679605   -.2662034
     mem_num |  -.0899284   .0683433    -1.32   0.188    -.2238788    .0440219
  max_threat |  -1.373431   .7336605    -1.87   0.061    -2.811379     .064517
     wartime |  -1.108485   .3736424    -2.97   0.003     -1.84081    -.376159
       _cons |   .5085374   .6178813     0.82   0.410    -.7024876    1.719562
------------------------------------------------------------------------------

.     estimates store a19

. 
. 
.     /////////////////////////
>     //     Table A.19
.     /////////////////////////
> 
.     esttab a19, aic se star(* 0.10 ** 0.05 *** 0.01) b(%9.3f) label

------------------------------------
                              (1)   
                     Consultati~y   
------------------------------------
Consultation Only                   
Proportion of Demo~s        1.593***
                          (0.264)   

Similarity of Inte~s       -1.473** 
                          (0.616)   

Number of Members          -0.090   
                          (0.068)   

Threat Level               -1.373*  
                          (0.734)   

War Time                   -1.108***
                          (0.374)   

Constant                    0.509   
                          (0.618)   
------------------------------------
Observations                  536   
AIC                       611.213   
------------------------------------
Standard errors in parentheses
* p<0.10, ** p<0.05, *** p<0.01

. 
. 
.     // Hypothesis 2
. 
.     logit defcon dem_prop mean_s_2cat mem_num offense consul if defense == 1

Iteration 0:   log likelihood = -178.91609  
Iteration 1:   log likelihood =  -157.3184  
Iteration 2:   log likelihood = -157.25095  
Iteration 3:   log likelihood = -157.25091  
Iteration 4:   log likelihood = -157.25091  

Logistic regression                               Number of obs   =        260
                                                  LR chi2(5)      =      43.33
                                                  Prob > chi2     =     0.0000
Log likelihood = -157.25091                       Pseudo R2       =     0.1211

------------------------------------------------------------------------------
      defcon |      Coef.   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
    dem_prop |   .9837431   .4738306     2.08   0.038     .0550522    1.912434
 mean_s_2cat |  -1.354266   .7373094    -1.84   0.066    -2.799366    .0908335
     mem_num |   .1317821   .0526593     2.50   0.012     .0285717    .2349925
     offense |   1.548223   .3268814     4.74   0.000     .9075471    2.188899
      consul |  -.8428241   .2863393    -2.94   0.003    -1.404039   -.2816095
       _cons |   .3610059   .6730339     0.54   0.592    -.9581162    1.680128
------------------------------------------------------------------------------

.     estimates store a20

. 
.     /////////////////////////
>     //     Table A.20
.     /////////////////////////
> 
.     esttab a20, aic se star(* 0.10 ** 0.05 *** 0.01) b(%9.3f) label

------------------------------------
                              (1)   
                     Defense Co~y   
------------------------------------
Defense Conditiona~y                
Proportion of Demo~s        0.984** 
                          (0.474)   

Similarity of Inte~s       -1.354*  
                          (0.737)   

Number of Members           0.132** 
                          (0.053)   

Offense Obligation          1.548***
                          (0.327)   

Consultation Oblig~n       -0.843***
                          (0.286)   

Constant                    0.361   
                          (0.673)   
------------------------------------
Observations                  260   
AIC                       326.502   
------------------------------------
Standard errors in parentheses
* p<0.10, ** p<0.05, *** p<0.01

. 
. 
. //==========================================
. // Mean threat instead of maximum
. //==========================================
. 
.         logit onlyconsul dem_prop min_s_2cat mem_num mean_threat wartime

Iteration 0:   log likelihood = -335.60891  
Iteration 1:   log likelihood = -300.47507  
Iteration 2:   log likelihood = -299.14416  
Iteration 3:   log likelihood = -299.13309  
Iteration 4:   log likelihood = -299.13308  

Logistic regression                               Number of obs   =        536
                                                  LR chi2(5)      =      72.95
                                                  Prob > chi2     =     0.0000
Log likelihood = -299.13308                       Pseudo R2       =     0.1087

------------------------------------------------------------------------------
  onlyconsul |      Coef.   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
    dem_prop |   1.603441   .2625735     6.11   0.000     1.088807    2.118076
  min_s_2cat |   -1.31409   .5524464    -2.38   0.017    -2.396865   -.2313152
     mem_num |  -.1403727   .0732519    -1.92   0.055    -.2839438    .0031985
 mean_threat |  -1.690527   .8604866    -1.96   0.049     -3.37705   -.0040045
     wartime |  -1.119521   .3713872    -3.01   0.003    -1.847427   -.3916156
       _cons |   .4797656   .5933018     0.81   0.419    -.6830846    1.642616
------------------------------------------------------------------------------

.     estimates store a21

. 
. 
.     /////////////////////////
>     //     Table A.21
.     /////////////////////////
> 
.     esttab a21, aic se star(* 0.10 ** 0.05 *** 0.01) b(%9.3f) label

------------------------------------
                              (1)   
                     Consultati~y   
------------------------------------
Consultation Only                   
Proportion of Demo~s        1.603***
                          (0.263)   

Similarity of Inte~s       -1.314** 
                          (0.552)   

Number of Members          -0.140*  
                          (0.073)   

Threat Level               -1.691** 
                          (0.860)   

War Time                   -1.120***
                          (0.371)   

Constant                    0.480   
                          (0.593)   
------------------------------------
Observations                  536   
AIC                       610.266   
------------------------------------
Standard errors in parentheses
* p<0.10, ** p<0.05, *** p<0.01

. 
. 
. //==========================================
. // 5 times more zeros
. //==========================================
. 
.     use "CJL_data_zero5.dta", clear

. 
.     // Hypothesis 1
. 
.     ml model lf tpm ///
>         (out:h1_cat3 = dem_prop min_s_2cat mem_num max_threat wartime) ///
>         (sel:          dem_prop min_s_2cat mem_num max_threat wartime), ///
>         tech(bfgs) robust

.     ml maximize, nolog

                                                  Number of obs   =       3216
                                                  Wald chi2(5)    =      67.89
Log pseudolikelihood = -1711.5565                 Prob > chi2     =     0.0000

------------------------------------------------------------------------------
             |               Robust
     h1_cat3 |      Coef.   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
out          |
    dem_prop |   1.586321   .2665375     5.95   0.000     1.063917    2.108725
  min_s_2cat |  -1.453214   .6015449    -2.42   0.016    -2.632221    -.274208
     mem_num |  -.1362255   .0678119    -2.01   0.045    -.2691343   -.0033166
  max_threat |  -1.405891   .6459405    -2.18   0.030    -2.671911   -.1398709
     wartime |  -1.121108   .4011952    -2.79   0.005    -1.907436   -.3347798
       _cons |    .591831   .6243953     0.95   0.343    -.6319612    1.815623
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
sel          |
    dem_prop |   .1200742   .1478159     0.81   0.417    -.1696396    .4097881
  min_s_2cat |   .1704962   .3471406     0.49   0.623    -.5098869    .8508792
     mem_num |   .0380286   .0229155     1.66   0.097     -.006885    .0829423
  max_threat |  -2.321031   .3640403    -6.38   0.000    -3.034537   -1.607525
     wartime |  -.0234465   .1447035    -0.16   0.871    -.3070602    .2601671
       _cons |  -1.262421   .3737147    -3.38   0.001    -1.994889   -.5299541
------------------------------------------------------------------------------

.     estimates store tpm1_5zero

. 
. 
.     /////////////////////////
>     //     Table A.22
.     /////////////////////////
> 
.     esttab tpm1 tpm1_5zero, aic se star(* 0.10 ** 0.05 *** 0.01) b(%9.2f) label

----------------------------------------------------
                              (1)             (2)   
                     DV for 2P~1)    DV for 2P~1)   
----------------------------------------------------
out                                                 
Proportion of Demo~s         1.59***         1.59***
                           (0.27)          (0.27)   

Similarity of Inte~s        -1.45**         -1.45** 
                           (0.60)          (0.60)   

Number of Members           -0.14**         -0.14** 
                           (0.07)          (0.07)   

Threat Level                -1.41**         -1.41** 
                           (0.65)          (0.65)   

War Time                    -1.12***        -1.12***
                           (0.40)          (0.40)   

Constant                     0.59            0.59   
                           (0.62)          (0.62)   
----------------------------------------------------
sel                                                 
Proportion of Demo~s         0.10            0.12   
                           (0.15)          (0.15)   

Similarity of Inte~s         0.28            0.17   
                           (0.37)          (0.35)   

Number of Members            0.04*           0.04*  
                           (0.02)          (0.02)   

Threat Level                -2.20***        -2.32***
                           (0.37)          (0.36)   

War Time                    -0.04           -0.02   
                           (0.14)          (0.14)   

Constant                    -2.07***        -1.26***
                           (0.39)          (0.37)   
----------------------------------------------------
Observations                 5896            3216   
AIC                       4136.13         3447.11   
----------------------------------------------------
Standard errors in parentheses
* p<0.10, ** p<0.05, *** p<0.01

. 
. 
.     // Hypothesis 2
. 
.     ml model lf tpm ///
>     (out: h2_cat3 = dem_prop min_s_2cat mem_num offense_tpm consul_tpm) ///
>     (sel:           dem_prop min_s_2cat mem_num), ///
>     tech(bfgs) robust

.     ml maximize, nolog

                                                  Number of obs   =       3216
                                                  Wald chi2(5)    =      38.26
Log pseudolikelihood = -1032.5285                 Prob > chi2     =     0.0000

------------------------------------------------------------------------------
             |               Robust
     h2_cat3 |      Coef.   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
out          |
    dem_prop |   1.001542   .4726856     2.12   0.034     .0750956    1.927989
  min_s_2cat |  -1.151392   .7284809    -1.58   0.114    -2.579188    .2764044
     mem_num |   .1065016   .0578015     1.84   0.065    -.0067873    .2197905
 offense_tpm |   1.535469   .3137234     4.89   0.000     .9205827    2.150356
  consul_tpm |  -.8539768   .2813603    -3.04   0.002    -1.405433   -.3025207
       _cons |    .244459   .6784271     0.36   0.719    -1.085234    1.574152
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
sel          |
    dem_prop |  -1.194038   .2459093    -4.86   0.000    -1.676012   -.7120651
  min_s_2cat |   1.276923    .481982     2.65   0.008     .3322561    2.221591
     mem_num |   .1030059   .0251369     4.10   0.000     .0537385    .1522733
       _cons |   -3.42017   .4396538    -7.78   0.000    -4.281876   -2.558465
------------------------------------------------------------------------------

.     estimates store tpm2_5zero

. 
. 
.     /////////////////////////
>     //     Table A.23
.     /////////////////////////
> 
.     esttab tpm2 tpm2_5zero, aic se star(* 0.10 ** 0.05 *** 0.01) b(%9.2f) label

----------------------------------------------------
                              (1)             (2)   
                     DV for 2P~2)    DV for 2P~2)   
----------------------------------------------------
out                                                 
Proportion of Demo~s         1.00**          1.00** 
                           (0.47)          (0.47)   

Similarity of Inte~s        -1.15           -1.15   
                           (0.73)          (0.73)   

Number of Members            0.11*           0.11*  
                           (0.06)          (0.06)   

Offense Obligation           1.54***         1.54***
                           (0.31)          (0.31)   

Consultation Oblig~n        -0.85***        -0.85***
                           (0.28)          (0.28)   

Constant                     0.24            0.24   
                           (0.68)          (0.68)   
----------------------------------------------------
sel                                                 
Proportion of Demo~s        -1.22***        -1.19***
                           (0.25)          (0.25)   

Similarity of Inte~s         1.54***         1.28***
                           (0.50)          (0.48)   

Number of Members            0.11***         0.10***
                           (0.03)          (0.03)   

Constant                    -4.28***        -3.42***
                           (0.46)          (0.44)   
----------------------------------------------------
Observations                 5896            3216   
AIC                       2403.21         2085.06   
----------------------------------------------------
Standard errors in parentheses
* p<0.10, ** p<0.05, *** p<0.01

. 
. 
. 
. //==========================================
. // Multinomial logit
. //==========================================
. 
. // Hypothesis 1 (5 times more zeros)
. 
.         // 0 as the baseline
.         mlogit h1_cat3 dem_prop min_s_2cat mem_num max_threat wartime, base(0)

Iteration 0:   log likelihood = -1784.6138  
Iteration 1:   log likelihood = -1711.8213  
Iteration 2:   log likelihood = -1704.6228  
Iteration 3:   log likelihood = -1704.5831  
Iteration 4:   log likelihood = -1704.5831  

Multinomial logistic regression                   Number of obs   =       3216
                                                  LR chi2(10)     =     160.06
                                                  Prob > chi2     =     0.0000
Log likelihood = -1704.5831                       Pseudo R2       =     0.0448

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                   h1_cat3 |      Coef.   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
---------------------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
No_Alliance                |  (base outcome)
---------------------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
Defense_Offense_Neutrality |
                  dem_prop |  -.5730982   .1824216    -3.14   0.002    -.9306379   -.2155584
                min_s_2cat |   .8343382   .3741402     2.23   0.026     .1010368     1.56764
                   mem_num |   .0687197   .0242872     2.83   0.005     .0211176    .1163218
                max_threat |  -1.733126   .3813101    -4.55   0.000     -2.48048   -.9857723
                   wartime |   .1466358   .1593289     0.92   0.357    -.1656432    .4589148
                     _cons |  -2.235351   .3968488    -5.63   0.000     -3.01316   -1.457541
---------------------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
Consultation_Only          |
                  dem_prop |    1.30867   .2197211     5.96   0.000     .8780249    1.739316
                min_s_2cat |  -1.343362   .4897683    -2.74   0.006     -2.30329   -.3834337
                   mem_num |  -.0700825     .06351    -1.10   0.270    -.1945598    .0543948
                max_threat |  -3.966923   .6354275    -6.24   0.000    -5.212338   -2.721508
                   wartime |  -.6386805   .3237081    -1.97   0.048    -1.273137   -.0042242
                     _cons |  -1.010885   .5471933    -1.85   0.065    -2.083364    .0615939
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

.         estimates store ml5z_0

. 
.         // 1 as the baseline
.         mlogit h1_cat3 dem_prop min_s_2cat mem_num max_threat wartime, base(1)

Iteration 0:   log likelihood = -1784.6138  
Iteration 1:   log likelihood = -1711.8213  
Iteration 2:   log likelihood = -1704.6228  
Iteration 3:   log likelihood = -1704.5831  
Iteration 4:   log likelihood = -1704.5831  

Multinomial logistic regression                   Number of obs   =       3216
                                                  LR chi2(10)     =     160.06
                                                  Prob > chi2     =     0.0000
Log likelihood = -1704.5831                       Pseudo R2       =     0.0448

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                   h1_cat3 |      Coef.   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
---------------------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
No_Alliance                |
                  dem_prop |   .5730982   .1824216     3.14   0.002     .2155584    .9306379
                min_s_2cat |  -.8343382   .3741402    -2.23   0.026     -1.56764   -.1010368
                   mem_num |  -.0687197   .0242872    -2.83   0.005    -.1163218   -.0211176
                max_threat |   1.733126   .3813101     4.55   0.000     .9857723     2.48048
                   wartime |  -.1466358   .1593289    -0.92   0.357    -.4589148    .1656432
                     _cons |   2.235351   .3968488     5.63   0.000     1.457541     3.01316
---------------------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
Defense_Offense_Neutrality |  (base outcome)
---------------------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
Consultation_Only          |
                  dem_prop |   1.881768   .2728977     6.90   0.000     1.346899    2.416638
                min_s_2cat |    -2.1777   .5967209    -3.65   0.000    -3.347251   -1.008149
                   mem_num |  -.1388022    .066679    -2.08   0.037    -.2694906   -.0081138
                max_threat |  -2.233797   .7160503    -3.12   0.002     -3.63723   -.8303641
                   wartime |  -.7853163   .3511001    -2.24   0.025     -1.47346   -.0971728
                     _cons |   1.224465   .6532532     1.87   0.061    -.0558875    2.504818
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

.         estimates store ml5z_1

. 
. // Hypothesis 2 (5 times more zeros)
. 
.         mlogit h2_cat4 dem_prop min_s_2cat mem_num, base(2)

Iteration 0:   log likelihood = -1779.2327  
Iteration 1:   log likelihood = -1737.6917  
Iteration 2:   log likelihood = -1730.3341  
Iteration 3:   log likelihood =  -1730.289  
Iteration 4:   log likelihood = -1730.2889  

Multinomial logistic regression                   Number of obs   =       3216
                                                  LR chi2(9)      =      97.89
                                                  Prob > chi2     =     0.0000
Log likelihood = -1730.2889                       Pseudo R2       =     0.0275

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
              h2_cat4 |      Coef.   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
----------------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
No_Alliance           |
             dem_prop |   1.484723   .3274501     4.53   0.000     .8429328    2.126513
           min_s_2cat |  -2.177565   .5606096    -3.88   0.000     -3.27634   -1.078791
              mem_num |  -.0931981    .036087    -2.58   0.010    -.1639272   -.0224689
                _cons |   4.620666   .5260606     8.78   0.000     3.589606    5.651726
----------------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
Other_Alliances       |
             dem_prop |   2.412656   .3789997     6.37   0.000      1.66983    3.155481
           min_s_2cat |  -1.168137   .6948831    -1.68   0.093    -2.530083    .1938092
              mem_num |  -.2072913   .0834764    -2.48   0.013    -.3709021   -.0436806
                _cons |   1.063325   .6752595     1.57   0.115    -.2601595    2.386809
----------------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
Unconditional_Defense |  (base outcome)
----------------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
Conditional_Defense   |
             dem_prop |   .7401619   .4477724     1.65   0.098    -.1374559     1.61778
           min_s_2cat |  -1.628551   .7275591    -2.24   0.025    -3.054541   -.2025613
              mem_num |   .0090579   .0442586     0.20   0.838    -.0776873    .0958031
                _cons |   .9417741   .6792825     1.39   0.166    -.3895951    2.273143
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

.         estimates store ml5z_4cat2

. 
. 
. 
.     use "CJL_data_zero10.dta", clear

. 
. // Hypothesis 1 (10 times more zeros)
. 
.         // 0 as the baseline
.         mlogit h1_cat3 dem_prop min_s_2cat mem_num max_threat wartime, base(0)

Iteration 0:   log likelihood = -2131.7433  
Iteration 1:   log likelihood = -2056.0793  
Iteration 2:   log likelihood =  -2047.394  
Iteration 3:   log likelihood = -2047.3494  
Iteration 4:   log likelihood = -2047.3494  

Multinomial logistic regression                   Number of obs   =       5896
                                                  LR chi2(10)     =     168.79
                                                  Prob > chi2     =     0.0000
Log likelihood = -2047.3494                       Pseudo R2       =     0.0396

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                   h1_cat3 |      Coef.   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
---------------------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
No_Alliance                |  (base outcome)
---------------------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
Defense_Offense_Neutrality |
                  dem_prop |  -.6245481   .1801443    -3.47   0.001    -.9776245   -.2714718
                min_s_2cat |   1.034063   .3795625     2.72   0.006     .2901341    1.777992
                   mem_num |   .0755813   .0233633     3.24   0.001     .0297901    .1213725
                max_threat |  -1.559456   .3717042    -4.20   0.000    -2.287983   -.8309295
                   wartime |   .1174556    .153979     0.76   0.446    -.1843376    .4192489
                     _cons |  -3.129958   .4007418    -7.81   0.000    -3.915398   -2.344519
---------------------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
Consultation_Only          |
                  dem_prop |   1.330585    .218235     6.10   0.000      .902852    1.758318
                min_s_2cat |  -1.368273   .4918376    -2.78   0.005    -2.332257   -.4042894
                   mem_num |  -.0608241   .0621092    -0.98   0.327    -.1825558    .0609077
                max_threat |  -3.955062   .6330913    -6.25   0.000    -5.195898   -2.714226
                   wartime |  -.6017819   .3197149    -1.88   0.060    -1.228412    .0248477
                     _cons |  -1.727757    .546393    -3.16   0.002    -2.798668   -.6568468
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

.         estimates store ml10z_0

. 
.         // 1 as the baseline
.         mlogit h1_cat3 dem_prop min_s_2cat mem_num max_threat wartime, base(1)

Iteration 0:   log likelihood = -2131.7433  
Iteration 1:   log likelihood = -2056.0793  
Iteration 2:   log likelihood =  -2047.394  
Iteration 3:   log likelihood = -2047.3494  
Iteration 4:   log likelihood = -2047.3494  

Multinomial logistic regression                   Number of obs   =       5896
                                                  LR chi2(10)     =     168.79
                                                  Prob > chi2     =     0.0000
Log likelihood = -2047.3494                       Pseudo R2       =     0.0396

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                   h1_cat3 |      Coef.   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
---------------------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
No_Alliance                |
                  dem_prop |   .6245481   .1801443     3.47   0.001     .2714718    .9776245
                min_s_2cat |  -1.034063   .3795625    -2.72   0.006    -1.777992   -.2901341
                   mem_num |  -.0755813   .0233633    -3.24   0.001    -.1213725   -.0297901
                max_threat |   1.559456   .3717042     4.20   0.000     .8309295    2.287983
                   wartime |  -.1174556    .153979    -0.76   0.446    -.4192489    .1843376
                     _cons |   3.129958   .4007418     7.81   0.000     2.344519    3.915398
---------------------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
Defense_Offense_Neutrality |  (base outcome)
---------------------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
Consultation_Only          |
                  dem_prop |   1.955133    .276533     7.07   0.000     1.413138    2.497128
                min_s_2cat |  -2.402336   .6113523    -3.93   0.000    -3.600565   -1.204108
                   mem_num |  -.1364054    .065642    -2.08   0.038    -.2650614   -.0077494
                max_threat |  -2.395606   .7215689    -3.32   0.001    -3.809855   -.9813566
                   wartime |  -.7192375   .3499301    -2.06   0.040    -1.405088   -.0333871
                     _cons |   1.402201    .665985     2.11   0.035     .0968943    2.707508
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

.         estimates store ml10z_1

. 
.         // Hausman test
.         mlogit h1_cat3 dem_prop min_s_2cat mem_num max_threat wartime, base(1), if h1_cat3 != 0

Iteration 0:   log likelihood = -335.60891  
Iteration 1:   log likelihood = -300.57933  
Iteration 2:   log likelihood = -299.26277  
Iteration 3:   log likelihood = -299.25245  
Iteration 4:   log likelihood = -299.25244  

Multinomial logistic regression                   Number of obs   =        536
                                                  LR chi2(5)      =      72.71
                                                  Prob > chi2     =     0.0000
Log likelihood = -299.25244                       Pseudo R2       =     0.1083

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                   h1_cat3 |      Coef.   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
---------------------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
Defense_Offense_Neutrality |  (base outcome)
---------------------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
Consultation_Only          |
                  dem_prop |   1.586172   .2636971     6.02   0.000     1.069335    2.103009
                min_s_2cat |  -1.453196   .5720853    -2.54   0.011    -2.574463   -.3319293
                   mem_num |  -.1362285   .0725169    -1.88   0.060    -.2783589    .0059019
                max_threat |  -1.405994   .7341784    -1.92   0.055    -2.844957    .0329693
                   wartime |  -1.121284   .3742837    -3.00   0.003    -1.854866    -.387701
                     _cons |   .5918978   .6247671     0.95   0.343    -.6326232    1.816419
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

. 
.         hausman ml10z_1, alleqs constant

                 ---- Coefficients ----
             |      (b)          (B)            (b-B)     sqrt(diag(V_b-V_B))
             |    ml10z_1         .          Difference          S.E.
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
    dem_prop |    1.955133     1.586172        .3689608        .0832728
  min_s_2cat |   -2.402336    -1.453196       -.9491404        .2155689
     mem_num |   -.1364054    -.1362285       -.0001769               .
  max_threat |   -2.395606    -1.405994       -.9896117               .
     wartime |   -.7192375    -1.121284         .402046               .
       _cons |    1.402201     .5918978        .8103032        .2306559
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                          b = consistent under Ho and Ha; obtained from mlogit
           B = inconsistent under Ha, efficient under Ho; obtained from mlogit

    Test:  Ho:  difference in coefficients not systematic

                  chi2(6) = (b-B)'[(V_b-V_B)^(-1)](b-B)
                          =       23.65
                Prob>chi2 =      0.0006
                (V_b-V_B is not positive definite)

. 
. // Hypothesis 2 (10 times more zeros)
. 
.         mlogit h2_cat4 dem_prop min_s_2cat mem_num, base(2)

Iteration 0:   log likelihood =  -2065.399  
Iteration 1:   log likelihood = -2020.6284  
Iteration 2:   log likelihood = -2011.6167  
Iteration 3:   log likelihood = -2011.4571  
Iteration 4:   log likelihood = -2011.4566  
Iteration 5:   log likelihood = -2011.4566  

Multinomial logistic regression                   Number of obs   =       5896
                                                  LR chi2(9)      =     107.88
                                                  Prob > chi2     =     0.0000
Log likelihood = -2011.4566                       Pseudo R2       =     0.0261

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
              h2_cat4 |      Coef.   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
----------------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
No_Alliance           |
             dem_prop |   1.560546   .3293832     4.74   0.000     .9149669    2.206126
           min_s_2cat |  -2.461284   .5672029    -4.34   0.000    -3.572981   -1.349587
              mem_num |  -.1038899   .0356529    -2.91   0.004    -.1737682   -.0340116
                _cons |   5.531238   .5327913    10.38   0.000     4.486986    6.575489
----------------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
Other_Alliances       |
             dem_prop |   2.506337   .3840728     6.53   0.000     1.753568    3.259106
           min_s_2cat |  -1.338531   .7049708    -1.90   0.058    -2.720248    .0431864
              mem_num |  -.2079351   .0822294    -2.53   0.011    -.3691017   -.0467686
                _cons |   1.180309   .6839355     1.73   0.084    -.1601803    2.520798
----------------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
Unconditional_Defense |  (base outcome)
----------------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
Conditional_Defense   |
             dem_prop |   .7807098   .4548292     1.72   0.086    -.1107391    1.672159
           min_s_2cat |  -1.722231   .7460077    -2.31   0.021    -3.184379   -.2600826
              mem_num |   .0031431   .0448391     0.07   0.944      -.08474    .0910261
                _cons |    1.02679   .6965694     1.47   0.140    -.3384609    2.392041
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

.         estimates store ml10z_4cat2

. 
.         // Hausman test 1
.         mlogit h2_cat4 dem_prop min_s_2cat mem_num, base(2), if h2_cat4 != 0

Iteration 0:   log likelihood = -482.76525  
Iteration 1:   log likelihood = -448.70651  
Iteration 2:   log likelihood = -447.16747  
Iteration 3:   log likelihood = -447.08142  
Iteration 4:   log likelihood = -447.08112  
Iteration 5:   log likelihood = -447.08112  

Multinomial logistic regression                   Number of obs   =        447
                                                  LR chi2(6)      =      71.37
                                                  Prob > chi2     =     0.0000
Log likelihood = -447.08112                       Pseudo R2       =     0.0739

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
              h2_cat4 |      Coef.   Std. Err.      z    P>|z|     [95% Conf. Interval]
----------------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
Other_Alliances       |
             dem_prop |   2.184497   .3779231     5.78   0.000     1.443782    2.925213
           min_s_2cat |   -.020031    .692374    -0.03   0.977    -1.377059    1.336997
              mem_num |  -.2362361   .0987351    -2.39   0.017    -.4297534   -.0427189
                _cons |    .247016   .6649446     0.37   0.710    -1.056251    1.550283
----------------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
Unconditional_Defense |  (base outcome)
----------------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
Conditional_Defense   |
             dem_prop |   .4809849   .4398567     1.09   0.274    -.3811184    1.343088
           min_s_2cat |  -1.343626    .690147    -1.95   0.052     -2.69629    .0090368
              mem_num |   .0472795   .0455472     1.04   0.299    -.0419914    .1365503
                _cons |    .650082   .6342524     1.02   0.305    -.5930298    1.893194
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

.         hausman ml10z_4cat2, alleqs constant

                 ---- Coefficients ----
             |      (b)          (B)            (b-B)     sqrt(diag(V_b-V_B))
             |  ml10z_4cat2       .          Difference          S.E.
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
Other_Alliances|
    dem_prop |    2.506337     2.184497        .3218398        .0684543
  min_s_2cat |   -1.338531     -.020031         -1.3185        .1326728
     mem_num |   -.2079351    -.2362361         .028301               .
       _cons |    1.180309      .247016        .9332927        .1600518
-------------+----------------------------------------------------------------
Conditional_Defense|
    dem_prop |    .7807098     .4809849        .2997249        .1157398
  min_s_2cat |   -1.722231    -1.343626       -.3786046        .2832397
     mem_num |    .0031431     .0472795       -.0441364               .
       _cons |     1.02679      .650082        .3767079        .2879805
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                          b = consistent under Ho and Ha; obtained from mlogit
           B = inconsistent under Ha, efficient under Ho; obtained from mlogit

    Test:  Ho:  difference in coefficients not systematic

                  chi2(8) = (b-B)'[(V_b-V_B)^(-1)](b-B)
                          =       12.10
                Prob>chi2 =      0.1468
                (V_b-V_B is not positive definite)

. 
. 
. 
.     /////////////////////////
>     //     Table A.24
.     /////////////////////////
> 
.     esttab ml10z_1 ml10z_0 ml5z_0 ml5z_1,  star(* 0.10 ** 0.05 *** 0.01) b(%9.2f) se

----------------------------------------------------------------------------
                      (1)             (2)             (3)             (4)   
                  h1_cat3         h1_cat3         h1_cat3         h1_cat3   
----------------------------------------------------------------------------
No_Alliance                                                                 
dem_prop             0.62***            .               .            0.57***
                   (0.18)               .               .          (0.18)   

min_s_2cat          -1.03***            .               .           -0.83** 
                   (0.38)               .               .          (0.37)   

mem_num             -0.08***            .               .           -0.07***
                   (0.02)               .               .          (0.02)   

max_threat           1.56***            .               .            1.73***
                   (0.37)               .               .          (0.38)   

wartime             -0.12               .               .           -0.15   
                   (0.15)               .               .          (0.16)   

_cons                3.13***            .               .            2.24***
                   (0.40)               .               .          (0.40)   
----------------------------------------------------------------------------
Defense_Of~y                                                                
dem_prop                .           -0.62***        -0.57***            .   
                        .          (0.18)          (0.18)               .   

min_s_2cat              .            1.03***         0.83**             .   
                        .          (0.38)          (0.37)               .   

mem_num                 .            0.08***         0.07***            .   
                        .          (0.02)          (0.02)               .   

max_threat              .           -1.56***        -1.73***            .   
                        .          (0.37)          (0.38)               .   

wartime                 .            0.12            0.15               .   
                        .          (0.15)          (0.16)               .   

_cons                   .           -3.13***        -2.24***            .   
                        .          (0.40)          (0.40)               .   
----------------------------------------------------------------------------
Consultati~y                                                                
dem_prop             1.96***         1.33***         1.31***         1.88***
                   (0.28)          (0.22)          (0.22)          (0.27)   

min_s_2cat          -2.40***        -1.37***        -1.34***        -2.18***
                   (0.61)          (0.49)          (0.49)          (0.60)   

mem_num             -0.14**         -0.06           -0.07           -0.14** 
                   (0.07)          (0.06)          (0.06)          (0.07)   

max_threat          -2.40***        -3.96***        -3.97***        -2.23***
                   (0.72)          (0.63)          (0.64)          (0.72)   

wartime             -0.72**         -0.60*          -0.64**         -0.79** 
                   (0.35)          (0.32)          (0.32)          (0.35)   

_cons                1.40**         -1.73***        -1.01*           1.22*  
                   (0.67)          (0.55)          (0.55)          (0.65)   
----------------------------------------------------------------------------
N                    5896            5896            3216            3216   
----------------------------------------------------------------------------
Standard errors in parentheses
* p<0.10, ** p<0.05, *** p<0.01

. 
. 
.     /////////////////////////
>     //     Table A.25
.     /////////////////////////
> 
.     esttab ml10z_4cat2 ml5z_4cat2,  star(* 0.10 ** 0.05 *** 0.01) b(%9.2f) se

--------------------------------------------
                      (1)             (2)   
                  h2_cat4         h2_cat4   
--------------------------------------------
No_Alliance                                 
dem_prop             1.56***         1.48***
                   (0.33)          (0.33)   

min_s_2cat          -2.46***        -2.18***
                   (0.57)          (0.56)   

mem_num             -0.10***        -0.09***
                   (0.04)          (0.04)   

_cons                5.53***         4.62***
                   (0.53)          (0.53)   
--------------------------------------------
Other_Alli~s                                
dem_prop             2.51***         2.41***
                   (0.38)          (0.38)   

min_s_2cat          -1.34*          -1.17*  
                   (0.70)          (0.69)   

mem_num             -0.21**         -0.21** 
                   (0.08)          (0.08)   

_cons                1.18*           1.06   
                   (0.68)          (0.68)   
--------------------------------------------
Unconditio~e                                
dem_prop                .               .   
                        .               .   

min_s_2cat              .               .   
                        .               .   

mem_num                 .               .   
                        .               .   

_cons                   .               .   
                        .               .   
--------------------------------------------
Conditiona~e                                
dem_prop             0.78*           0.74*  
                   (0.45)          (0.45)   

min_s_2cat          -1.72**         -1.63** 
                   (0.75)          (0.73)   

mem_num              0.00            0.01   
                   (0.04)          (0.04)   

_cons                1.03            0.94   
                   (0.70)          (0.68)   
--------------------------------------------
N                    5896            3216   
--------------------------------------------
Standard errors in parentheses
* p<0.10, ** p<0.05, *** p<0.01

. 
. 
. 
. 
. cap log close
